With just over a week left until internal elections, Citizens are beginning to define their preferences and, if there are no surprises, the main political parties already have a leading candidate, according to the latest survey by Consulting Teams.
According to the survey, the situations are different in each space: in the National Party (PN) the figure of Alvaro Delgado continues to grow and is the wide favorite, while in the Wide Front (FA) Yamandu Orsi takes a light advantage and the trend in the Colorado Party (PC) shows a Andres Ojeda at the head, although within the framework of a complex and extensive offer for the elections 2024.
The survey was carried out between May 29 and the 13th of this month, combining an in-person and telephone methodology with more than 1,100 Uruguayans 18 years and older. Consulting Teams investigated people who are “close” or “very close” to each party and also used the category of “politicized voters”, which becomes relevant mainly in the FA.
A stable trend in the National Party
In it P.N., Slim It has an enormous advantage (which is growing) over the rest, with 64% of the adhesions. The former Secretary of the Presidency is supported by the economist Laura Raffo, with 25%; and the senator Jorge Gandini, with 11%.
Among white voters “politicized”, which is associated with those who will go to vote even though the internal ones are not mandatory, the trend does not change, with 65% for Delgado, 21% for Raffo, 13% for Gandini and in this case it would reach 1% Carlos Iafigliola.
In this way, despite ups and downs, Delgado remained stable above his internal adversaries, so the pollsters discount that he will be the white candidate for the general elections.
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A competition with nuances in the Frente Amplio
Instead, in the FA the difference between Orsi and Carolina Cosse has been reducing, although the former mayor of cannelloni obtains 58% of the preferences, against 37% of the reference of Montevideo and 5% of Andres Lima.
However, a central issue arises when consulting among the “politicized” Uruguayans, reducing the advantage significantly. Although Orsi remains first with 54%, Cosse follows him with 44% and Lima reaches 6%.
For all this, Equipos Consultores observed that it is a “volatile” internal, so the higher or lower levels of effective mobilization of voters will be important, in a base scenario that favors the referent of the MPP.
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A favorite appears in the large internal ranks of the Colorado Party
The most complex internal one is that of the PC due to the multiplicity of candidates. Yes ok Ojeda adds 45% of the preferences, beating Robert Silva (twenty-one%), Tabare Viera (16%) and Gabriel Gurmendez (13%), the consulting firm warned that the differences “are not statistically significant, so it is not possible to affirm the relative order between them.”
In any case, the authors clarified that “the most marked trend in recent months has been the growth of Ojeda, both in his knowledge and image indicators and in his preference indicators,” so he seems to be the one with the greatest chances of become a candidate for the general elections.
Source: Ambito
