There are three days left until internal elections in Uruguay and the latest polls project a possible scenario not only for Sunday, but also for October. In that sense, Consulting Teams published its latest figures, with responses collected between the end of May and mid-June: the Broad Front would beat the governing coalition by a 5-point lead.
The election results are never a certainty until the scrutiny is done but, sometimes, the surveys Previous reports allow us to foresee possible outcomes of the electoral contest. Although the sole candidates of each party will only be elected on Sunday – in a non-compulsory election, so participation can influence the percentages – a balance will begin to be made of what can be expected in October and what that each match must work until the generals.
In this regard, Equipos Consultores published its last survey before the electoral ban, in which 44% of the people consulted were inclined to vote for the Broad Front If the elections were today. 26%, meanwhile, chose the National Party; while 9% selected the Colorado Party, 3% to Town meeting and 1% to Independent Party. Among the parties in the government coalition they would thus total 39%, 5 points below the current opposition.
Likewise, 1% of those surveyed would vote for other parties, 4% are inclined to vote blank or spoiled, and 12% are undecided.
Compared to the previous measurement, the changes are minor: the Broad Front went from 43% to 44%, the National Party from 29% to 26%, the Colorado Party from 7% to 9%, Cabildo Abierto remains the same, and the Independent Party, which had not reached 1% in April, did so in June.
The differences are statistically small and on the edge of the margin of error. The most significant movement is the 3-point drop of the National Party, which occurs simultaneously with the growth of the Colorado Party and the Independent Party by 3 points together, thus maintaining the balance within the coalition.
In balance, the difference between the Broad Front and the ruling parties, which was 4 points in February and April, is 5 points in June, so in terms of the relationship between blocks, the scenario is basically one of stability, indicated the consultant.
What was the situation like five years ago?
If we compare the current results with those that the Equipos Consultores surveys indicated exactly, Five years ago, in June 2019, the differences are very wide: at that time the Frente Amplio was more than 20 points below the sum of the coalition parties. Finally, the difference between blocks in October would be 15 points.
In that sense, the current results are much more similar to those in June 2004 and 2014, with slight advantages in favor of the Frente Amplio, which would later be confirmed in the presidential election.
Different readings can be obtained from the remaining processes. That of 1999 is very clear: a scenario very similar to that of 2019 in which, at the middle of the year, the sum of the traditional parties already comfortably surpassed the Frente Amplio, which effectively also happened in October. That of 2009, on the other hand, was a curious scenario, where the Frente Amplio, then the ruling party, was slightly below the combined voting intentions of the traditional parties. However, between June and October the trend was reversed and the Frente Amplio obtained the parliamentary majority and the national government in the second round.
In balance, it can be said that the results of electoral preferences when averaging the electoral year, in these five elections that serve as background, the cases in which there has been a comfortable difference in favor of a bloc were confirmed in the presidential election. In cases where there have been moderate differences in favor of one of them, twice these differences were consolidated or widened in favor of whoever was leading in June (2004 and 2014), and in one of them (2009) the balance was broken in Wrong Way.
Source: Ambito
