The IMAE prepared monthly by the Central Bank of Uruguay reflected growth in the seasonally adjusted series.
The economic activity grew by a seasonally adjusted 3.2% in April, according to the latest data from the Central Bank of Uruguay (BCU), driven in part by the “calendar effect”, due to the comparison with a March that was influenced by the Tourism Week.
He Monthly Economic Activity Indicator (IMAE) of the BCU also reflected an increase of 4.2% in the year-on-year comparison, which is also affected by the fewer number of working days due to Holy Week, which in 2023 took place in April.
Meanwhile, the report reflected that in April there was a positive variation of 0.1% in the cycle trend compared to last month, confirming sustained growth.
It is worth remembering that the IMAE had fallen a seasonally adjusted 1.2% in March, similar to the 1.1% decline year-on-year. On that occasion, the cycle trend had also shown an increase of 0.1%.
GDP growth in the first quarter
He GDP grew 0.6% year-on-year in the first quarter, driven by the rebound of the agro behind the drought. Now, after the good data from April, the Ceres Leading Index He anticipated warning signs for economic activity in the coming months.
Although the indicator has been rising for eight months, he pointed out that “advance indicators of activity showed a growth of lower magnitude than expected, affected in part by a Argentine economy in recession and excessive rainfall that complicates agricultural logistics.”
Other yellow lights were the “elevated” costs of production, a low real exchange rate that affects the competitiveness” and low international prices, noting that the drop in the price gap “contributed to a small improvement”, while competitiveness with Brazil and extra-regional countries “continues to worsen and no significant change is projected in the coming months.”
Finally, the Ceres report noted that “another downward pressure” is linked to the delay in the reactivation of the refinery plant of The Tile, complicating the level of activity of Ancap.
Source: Ambito
