In 2022, the oil market will be in a state of oversupply against the deficit last year, according to the report of the OPEC + technical committee.
Experts have retained the base forecast for the demand market at 4.2 million bpd to 100.8 million bpd. In this scenario, the oversupply in the oil market will remain at 1.4 million barrels per day, while global stocks will increase by 525 million barrels, TASS reported on Monday, January 3.
The highest surplus is expected in March, April and November 2022. However, OPEC + experts have developed two more scenarios for the development of the situation on the oil market. They are associated with a slowdown and acceleration in the rate of oil demand.
Under the lowest scenario, oil demand in 2022 may grow by only 3.8 million bpd – up to 100.3 million bpd, while the oversupply will increase to 1.8 million bpd.
Under the high scenario, the growth in oil demand will reach 4.4 million bpd to 101.1 million bpd. At the same time, the surplus of supply on the market will remain all the same and will amount to 1.2 million bpd.
These scenarios take into account the release of the United States of 40 million barrels from strategic reserves during the first six months of 2022 and the return of 13 million barrels to the US reserves in the third quarter of 2022.
In addition, the scenarios take into account the decision of the OPEC + countries to increase oil production by 400 thousand bpd in January.
On December 24, Deputy Prime Minister of the Russian Federation Alexander Novak expressed the opinion that in 2022 the oil price could remain at the level of $ 75 per barrel with the possibility of fluctuations around 10%. He noted that such a price is promoted by the growth of the world economy and the demand for oil.
On December 7, Lukoil vice president Leonid Fedun said that the oil market will be protected from high volatility in the coming year thanks to the OPEC + deal, so oil will cost about $ 60-80 per barrel in 2022. According to him, OPEC + “ensures balancing” of oil production, but the world is facing the threat of a shortage of reserves.
The next OPEC + meeting will be held on January 4, at which the alliance must decide on the further parameters of the deal. According to the current agreements, the alliance is increasing production by 400 thousand barrels per day every month.
Source: IZ
Jane Stock is a technology author, who has written for 24 Hours World. She writes about the latest in technology news and trends, and is always on the lookout for new and innovative ways to improve his audience’s experience.
