Private sector expectations predict a CPI of 6% for the next 12 months, while they projected a decrease in their long-term forecasts.
The businessmen maintain their inflation expectations within the target range over the next 12 months, despite the recent rise in the CPI which threatens an increase in the indicator in the coming weeks.
This is how it arises from the Business Expectations Survey from the INE, which revealed that, as last month, the private sector expects inflation of 6% for 2024 and also for the moving year ending in May.
However, for the period from June 2025 to May 2026, businessmen expect a CPI of 6.2%, according to the median of responses collected by the INE. However, this implies a moderation of 30 basis points compared to the previous report.
As for the expected variation of the operating costs, Business leaders raised their perceptions by 20 basis points, indicating that the increase will be 6.6% in the calendar year. Meanwhile, they maintained that figure at 7% for the next 12 months and the estimate for two years.
A nod to the BCU’s monetary policy
In this way, the private sector sent a new wink to the monetary policy of the Central Bank of Uruguay (BCU), where they expect the CPI to remain between 3 and 6% over the next 24 months.
It’s that the inflation comes from reaching 4.96% after two consecutive increases, exceeding the target of 4.5%. Added to that, factors such as the increase in the dollar, the low levels that the CPI exhibited in the same period of 2023 and the increase in domestic consumption could increase the indicator.
In recent days, the president of the BCU, Diego Labat, He highlighted the progress made and pointed out that “Uruguay “managed to keep prices within target for an entire year.”
Labat projected that the process “will be consolidated over the next 24 months,” recognizing the task in a country with a “long history of inflation high”.
Source: Ambito
