The model computers call on politicians to decide quickly whether the contamination should take place slowly or unchecked. From their point of view, the latter would be “a risky bet with an extremely high stake”.
Politicians must clearly communicate to the population what is in store for them and explain that it is now more and more a matter of individual responsibility, according to the Complexity Science Hub’s “Policy Brief”. The assessment is based on a model calculation, according to which Omikron significantly reduces the population’s immune protection: while vaccination and recovery have protected over 70 percent against symptomatic infection by the Delta variant, only 40 percent of the population are protected against Omikron.
Video: Sharp increase in CoV numbers
The CSH scientists Peter Klimek and Stefan Thurner state in the “Policy Brief” that the time window in which one could still have tried to contain the wave of omicron that was just building up has already passed. “So once again the only question is whether you want to let the infection happen slowly or quickly. The chosen strategy should, however, be communicated immediately by politicians so that the population can prepare for it with individual protective measures,” said the Tuesday published Paper.
Realignment in pandemic management
So far Austria has pursued a strategy of flattening in the fight against pandemics. The incidence of infections was only sustainably reduced with non-pharmaceutical measures (lockdowns) when the hospitals’ capacity limits were reached in the intensive care units. With Omikron, the case could arise that this approach becomes obsolete, as other capacity limits in critical infrastructures could be reached earlier. A realignment in pandemic management must therefore be considered, according to the scientists.
If it is allowed to pass through, it can be assumed that around ten to 20 percent of the population will be infected with Omikron before the wave slows down. In this case, staff losses of this magnitude would be expected in the health system, but also in other critical infrastructures. For Klimek this variant would be “English Roulette”, as he told the APA: “A risky bet with an unknown probability of winning and an extremely high stake.”
Up to 1.8 million Austrians infected or in quarantine
In the case of unchecked passage, a slowdown in the dynamics would only be expected when around ten percent of the population has been infected and another ten percent are in quarantine or voluntarily reduce their contacts. In Austria, with just under nine million inhabitants, that would be between 900,000 and 1.8 million people.
In addition to the hospitals, all other public and private companies should therefore be prepared for the fact that up to 20 percent of the staff could be absent due to illness or quarantine. The quarantine rules would therefore have to be adapted dynamically and counter-cyclically to the infection dynamics in order to be able to ensure the functionality of critical infrastructures, i.e. shorter quarantines in the case of high case numbers.
It is quite likely that the previous high level of Covid hospital patients will be exceeded. However, it is not clear in which area this overload occurs first (staff, normal care, intensive care). According to reports from Great Britain about a third of the hospital stays there are not “because of” but “with” Covid-19, ie the patients are actually treated for a reason other than Covid and were randomly tested positive or infected in the hospital. This fact leads to additional resource problems, warn the experts.
“Preventing the wave becomes less likely every day”
“In summary, Omikron is forcing us to rethink our approach to fighting pandemics. Unfortunately, there is hardly any time left for this. Since preventing the wave is becoming less and less likely every day, this issue should be clarified among the population as soon as possible in order to give them the opportunity to take responsibility to protect, “write the scientists. Vaccination remains the most important instrument, even if it increasingly has to be understood as offering long-term protection against serious illness and only short-term protection against symptomatic infection.
Recently published data from the UK show that the protective effectiveness of a third dose against infection with Omikron drops from over 70 to 40 percent after ten weeks. The vaccination remains one of the essential measures. However, it is becoming increasingly clear that vaccination offers long-term protection against serious illness, but only short-term protection against symptomatic infection.
A permanent containment of the pandemic with the help of vaccination will be harder and harder to achieve. “Continuous booster vaccinations in developed countries are also to some extent undermining efforts to address the global imbalance in vaccine distribution,” the letter said.
Source: Nachrichten
