Up to 17,000 new infections are to be feared in the coming week. According to the experts’ calculations, next Wednesday (January 12th) there will certainly be more than 10,000 new infections within 24 hours. With a high probability it will be more than 13,000, the mean value is assumed to be 13,070. In the worst case, there could be over 17,000 new corona cases within a day.
Record value could be exceeded
For comparison: the previous record was reached with 15,809 new infections on November 19, 2021 in the fourth wave – three days later, an Austria-wide lockdown came into effect. At that time, the seven-day incidence – the number of new infections in the past seven days per 100,000 inhabitants – was 1,050 – the consortium believes that this value should be reached next Wednesday, possibly significantly exceeded. Should Omikron spread particularly rapidly, a seven-day incidence of nearly 1,400 is possible.
As far as the individual federal states are concerned, Tyrol can expect a lot. A seven-day incidence beyond the 3,000 limit on Wednesday cannot be ruled out; the consortium is certain that it will be well above 1,800. The prognosis also looks gloomy for Salzburg and Vienna, where incidences between 1,600 and 2,600 and 1,200 and 2,000 respectively must be expected. The lowest incidences should be in Styria (330 to 550) and Carinthia (340 to 560).
Occupancy on normal wards is increasing
What these numbers mean for the hospitals is still unclear. In this context, the forecasting consortium refers to “considerable uncertainties regarding the extent of the reduction in the virulence of the Omikron variant”. With reference to data from Great Britain, where a decrease in the virulence of the Omikron variant compared to the Delta variant was observed, the forecasting consortium expects between 770 and 1,175 patients on the Covid normal wards next Wednesday – on January 4th (data for January 5th was not yet available in the early afternoon, note) it was 722. On January 19th, the number of Covid patients in the normal wards is likely to rise to well over 1,200.
In the intensive care units, where 316 seriously ill patients were last treated, according to the calculations of the consortium, the coating will decrease, for which the proportion of people who have been vaccinated twice and three times as well as increasingly younger people in the infection rate is decisive. According to the forecasting consortium, there will be between 220 and 280 intensive care units next Wednesday, and up to 300 Covid patients the following week.
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Source: Nachrichten