Economic agents believe that the dollar will be closer to the $41 range in December.
The market revised its expectations upwards for the exchange rate at the end of the year, after economic agents went from expecting a median of 40.15 pesos for the dollar in June, to one of 40.80 in the current month.
According to the latest Economic Expectations Survey conducted by the Central Bank of Uruguay (BCU), the local market now believes that the dollar will be 0.65 pesos more expensive, which brings it closer to the 41 pesos range.
The minimum expected for the end of the year is 38.00 pesos, while the maximum is 42.00, something that seems to be far from what is inferred from the current operations of the greenback in the exchange market.
On Wednesday, the exchange rate rose 0.36% and closed at 40.284 pesos, resuming its upward trend and coming very close to its highest value so far this year, after accumulating 3.23%.
For the next 12 months (June 2025), economic agents expect a median of 41.65 pesos for the exchange rate, and one of 42.60 pesos for December 2025. As for mid-2026, they expect a median of 43.75 pesos, and one of 44.65 for the end of the calendar year.
GDP would not grow as much as initially expected
Regarding the growth of the gross domestic product (GDP) during the current year, economic agents in Uruguay revised their projections downwards, going from a median of 3.35% in June to the current 3.30%.
The expected GDP increase for 2025 also rose from 2.50% to 2.55% (based on 21 responses), while for 2026 it remains at 2.50%.
Source: Ambito
