Corona expert Elling: “Wave is rising significantly, vaccinate in good time”

This is because the increase occurred one to two months earlier than in summer 2023, he said in an APA interview. This means that an expected steep increase in cases (as occurred last year in late autumn and especially in November/December) could occur earlier.

In 2023, an initially slow increase in wastewater data at a comparatively low level was only recorded from around August. This year, after the extremely high winter wave and a very quiet spring, the Covid wastewater values ​​(available at https://abwassermonitoring.at/dashboard/) rose significantly in June and now July. The number of cases is also currently at a significantly higher level than in August of the previous year, as the geneticist who most recently worked at the Institute of Molecular Biotechnology (IMBA) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences (ÖAW) recalled.

Start vaccination early

“If you can already see that there is such a potential (for new infections, note), you have to assume that the wave (or the further increase in it, note) will come earlier than last year.” Therefore, vaccinations must be started early: “Since the vaccination takes a few weeks to take effect, I don’t think it makes sense to vaccinate at the same time as the flu,” said Elling, pointing out that the flu season starts much later.

He also pointed out that there was a very poor vaccination rate in Austria last year. Unfortunately, he sees no signs that politicians are making any efforts to counteract this. With a view to the national elections in the autumn, it can be assumed that hardly anyone will take up the issue of vaccination, Elling fears.

Better organization required

“We should have set this up by now,” says the molecular biologist, explaining the need for a vaccination campaign. The supply of Covid vaccinations in the outpatient sector has also been poor. Austria has ordered over a million doses of vaccine this year and recommends vaccination for everyone aged twelve and over, especially those over 60. This requires appropriate logistics in communication and administration. We therefore also need to consider how to organize this better this year. When asked, the Ministry of Health recently said that vaccinations should continue to be carried out in the outpatient sector (by doctors), as they have recently been.

These are the reasons for the increase

Elling believes that the reasons for the early increase in the number of Covid cases are that the population’s immunity has declined – partly because of the low vaccination rate, but also because the peak of the last wave (December 2023) was more than six months ago. In 2023, on the other hand, there was also a spring wave, and the population’s immunity declined later accordingly. A lot of “fuel” has already accumulated, in the sense that immunity has been reduced, said Elling. A “high infection potential” seems to have accumulated, he said.

New variants in circulation

The expert also pointed to the new variants, which have a growth advantage over the XBB and JN.1 variants that predominate in winter. After the so-called “FLiRT” variants (KP.1.1, KP.2), the JN.1 daughter variant KP.3 (and its daughter variants) is currently gaining ground internationally and also in Austria (so-called “FLuQE” variants, which again have a growth advantage over “FLiRT”). It is possible that there could be a high plateau of infections as early as late summer and that the winter wave will not peak as high as last December, said Elling – but this is highly speculative and uncertain.

The vaccine ordered by the Ministry of Health is initially only that of the manufacturer Biontech-Pfizer (Comirnaty Omicron JN.1), which is tailored to the JN.1 variant. The ministry explained in its new vaccination recommendation: “Variant vaccines against JN.1 will be available from summer 2024. The currently newly circulating variant KP.2 is very similar to the JN.1 variant from an immunological point of view and it can therefore be assumed that the adapted vaccine will produce a protective response for both variants.” The vaccination plan is available here. On Friday, the ministry announced that the first delivery of corona vaccines for JN.1 variants has already arrived in Austria (around 92,000 doses). They can be ordered and administered by vaccination centers over the course of the coming week.

Adapted vaccine?

However, the US FDA has now advised manufacturers to adapt their vaccines to the KP.2 virus strain if possible (see: https://go.apa.at/Nu687ehA). It is currently impossible to estimate whether such an adapted vaccine will be available in Europe or Austria. Austria has not yet ordered any other vaccines besides the mRNA vaccine from Biontech. It is also unclear whether a protein-based vaccine from the manufacturer Novavax will be available in Austria. In response to an APA query, the Ministry of Health pointed out that these questions also depend on the vaccine approval by the European Medicines Agency (EMA). The EMA announced on Friday that it is sticking to its April recommendation to adapt the vaccines to the JN.1 variant (see: https://go.apa.at/VRUAuDer).