The government agency’s projections suggest that economic activity will continue to rise in the next two quarters of the year.
The Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) of the Central Bank of Uruguay (BCU) projected a slight growth of the economy in the short term, and is confident that the economic activity will remain at the same levels during the last two quarters of this year.
In an analysis of the local economic context, Copom highlighted in its most recent minutes that the economic activity in Uruguay The economy posted a seasonally adjusted increase of 0.9% in the first quarter of the year, which was 0.6% above the level of a year ago. “Short-term projections suggest that the economy will continue to grow in the next two quarters,” the state agency said in its statement.
At the same time, they observe recoveries in the activity and employment rates in the labor market, as well as a decrease in unemployment, based on seasonally adjusted figures. “The data released by the National Institute of Statistics (INE) placed the employment rate at 58.4% of the Working Age Population (PET) considering the moving quarter closed in May,” the letter stresses.
In this regard, it was positively assessed that the activity rate is at 64.1% of the PET, and that the number of contributors to the Social Security Bank (BPS) grew 2.1% year-on-year during the moving quarter ending in May.
Forecasts for the global economy
In the international context, the BCU highlights that global activity “maintains the characteristics observed in recent months”, that is, a slowdown in the main economies, without falling into a recession.
For USAthey expect it to maintain a “relative dynamism”, although it will remain below its potential growth. With regard to the European Union They expect a recovery by the end of the year, driven by private consumption.
The panorama in China It is better than a few months ago, after the Asian giant experienced a recovery in recent months due to the growth of external demand.
In the region, Brazil presents good prospects for the level of domestic activity, together with an increase in inflationary projections. ArgentinaOn the other hand, inflation is decelerating in the context of a recession.
Source: Ambito
