Analysts and companies have lowered their projections through the period ending May 2026.
The economics agents they cut their inflation expectations two years and project a marked trend from an inflationary peak of up to 8.3% on average during October of this year, according to the latest survey of the Central Bank of Uruguay (BCU).
From the BCU report for the month of July, it is clear that the economic analysts reduced their inflation expectations by 0.1% compared to the previous month’s figure, bringing them to 5.9% year-on-year for June 2026. In turn, the companies They were encouraged to cut their expectations by 0.3% to 6.2% year-on-year for May 2026.
For their part, the financial markets were more skeptical about possible declines in year-on-year inflation by May 2026 and maintained their forecasts of 6.0%.
On average, economic agents in the Uruguay They expect inflation of 6.07% for May 2026. This figure is the lowest value since the beginning of the series in July 2021.
The BCU also projects inflation of 4.5% for the end of the year. monetary policy horizonthat is, the quarterly update projections with each Monetary Policy Report. These projections consider the international and regional situation, economic activity and the labor market, the exchange rate, tariffs, wage dynamics and inflation expectations of economic agents; and on this basis, simulations of interest rate movements are carried out.
Year-on-year inflation and the Monetary Policy Rate
In June the year-on-year inflation stood at 4.96%, which keeps it within the target range (3%-6%) for 13 consecutive months and implies a decrease of 1.03% compared to the same month in 2023.
In this regard, the BCU once again stressed its commitment to establishing a Monetary Policy Rate (TPM) to keep inflation within the established target range, which is why it kept rates at 8.5% during the month of July.
Source: Ambito
