A very difficult harvest has already been completed. soy corresponding to this year 2024. After the historic drought Last year, which cut production to less than 800,000 tons, a rematch was expected this year that could – among other things – provide farmers with a recovery of margins and profits. losses that were generated by last year’s drought.
But the actual result this year has been bittersweet. The planted area would have been 1,343,000 hectares, according to the estimate of Urupov (with satellite tools), a maximum of the last years. However, the yields The average yields – although obviously higher than last year, when the drought brought them down to less than a ton – were not good. This year the crop cycle had its difficulties, with the second sowings being quite late. But the most complicated thing came with the harvest, due to the heavy rains that accumulated in the fall, which extended the work until well into July.
This generated significant grain losses and – in the most extreme cases – the direct loss of the field, which could not be harvested. This occurred mainly in the eastern part of the country. Uruguaywhich although it is not the main soybean area, was seriously reduced this year.
As an indicator of the serious difficulties, it must be said that practically 100% of the harvested crop had to be dried. Average yields varied according to the area, but far from their genetic and agronomic potential. Preliminary estimates indicate an average yield of the planted area that would not reach 2,200 kg/ha.
Thus, production would not have reached 3 million tons, but would be closer to 2.9 million. Even so, this is a significant increase compared to last year’s production (graph) and this is being seen in the record of exports. This week, data for July were released, in which export turnover for soy was almost 160% higher than what was recorded a year ago.
Sharp drop in soybean prices
In addition to the problems with the harvest, producers have had to deal in recent months with a sharp drop in reference prices for the soyboth internationally and regionally. The large production of Brazil and a Chinese demand that – although at historically high levels – is working to pay as little as possible, has led to a significant drop in prices.
Added to this is the favoritism that the former president is showing. Donald Trump in the polls ahead of the US elections. The trade war that the Republican launched against the US government is still very fresh in the memory of grain market operators. Chinawhich in turn led to Chinese retaliation, generating a major market distortion. The situation was then gradually corrected, but could be repeated if the former president returns to the White House. At the end of last year, the soy It used to move around US$450/ton, today it does not exceed US$380/ton.
Faced with this price scenario, producers are reluctant to sell, but as the weeks go by they are under pressure to complete sales and cover costs, which have not dropped nearly in the same proportion as the sales price.
So the agricultural production scenario, although the drought has already been left behind, still has pending accounts on the financial front. A 2425 harvest with good yields will be needed to finally overcome recent problems.
Source: Ambito
