The Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) worsened his prognosis growth for the region and corrected it three-tenths downwards compared to the previous quarter, when the expected level was 1.8%.
According to the agency dependent on the UN, which warns of a “low growth trap” in Latin America, Uruguay will have an improvement of 3.6% this year, maintaining the forecast for May and remaining in the top group of countries in the region.
Above were only located Dominican Republic (5.2 %), Venezuela (5 %), Costa Rica (4 %), Paraguay and Honduras (3.8%) and Nicaragua (3.7%). Below but with good data appear El Salvador (3.5 %), Guatemala (3.4 %), Panama (2.7 %), Peru and Chili (2.6%), the islands of Caribbean -not counting Guyana– and Brazil (23 %), Mexico (1.9 %), Ecuador (1.8 %), Bolivia (1.7%) and Colombia (1.3%).
Meanwhile, among the worst in the class are: Argentina, with a drop of 3.6%; Haiti, with a decrease of 3%; and Cuba, with a decrease of 0.5%.
ECLAC’s view on Uruguay
In the section of the macroeconomic report on Uruguay, the Cepal He recalled that the evolution of the level of activity in 2023 was marked by institutional and environmental factors such as the drought that left the soybean exports at historic lows and the production of electrical energy, which went from being sold to requiring imported supplies.
This factor works in the opposite direction in the GDP by 2024, as the production of hydroelectric power is normalized, the UN agency reported, while also highlighting the start of production at the third plant cellulose of the country and the implementation of the Central Railway which drives product placements.
Another important element that ECLAC took into account to explain the level of activity has been the closure for maintenance of the refinery The tile between September and April, with a strong impact on the level of activity.
Forecasts for 2025 and warnings
On the other hand, Cepal expects regional growth of 2.3% by 2025, driven mainly by the countries of South America, which will grow by 2.4%.
In the report, they indicated that the region “remains stuck in a low growth trap, accompanied by poor performance of the investment and a low labor productivity, “This is compounded by the limited internal space to implement macroeconomic recovery policies and global uncertainty.”
In this regard, they pointed out that between 2015 and 2024 the average growth rate of Gross domestic product (Regional GDP) was 0.9%.
“Confronting the growth trap, increasing the employment and create jobs of greater productivity “This requires strengthening productive development policies that are complemented by macroeconomic, labor, and climate change adaptation and mitigation policies,” said ECLAC Executive Secretary José Manuel Salazar-Xirinachs, when presenting the report.
Source: Ambito
