How much will they reach? dollarinflation and growth in 2024?, are some of the questions that local and international analysts are asking. A recent report by Focus Economics took into account the expectations of more than 30 banks and consulting firms for the main economic variables in the last quarter of the year.
Waiting for the INDEC reveals inflation data for the month of Augustthe consensus of analysts is that inflation “should continue to decrease” due to fiscal policy and the reduction of the PAIS Tax. On average, they observe that prices will increase by 230.5% in 2024which represents a 3.7% drop compared to the previous report in July. By 2025, inflation is expected to be 62%.
The five consulting firms that predict higher inflation at the end of 2024 are:
- Barclays Capital: 195.8%
- Mapfre Economics: 190.9%
- EMPI: 168.5%
- Econviews: 158%
- Santander: 150.5%
While those that indicate lower inflation at the end of the year are:
- ABCDEF: 114.9%
- Pezco Economics: 114.6%
- Quantum Finance: 116%
- FAITHFUL: 117.5%
- C&T Advisors: 118%
Dollar: what will be the price for the next few months?
In a context where the Central Bank maintains the “crawling peg” at 2%, and where the parallel exchange rate was quoted at $1,260 on September 6, Focus Economics panelists see the peso ending at $1,178 per dollar on average this year and reaching $1,659 per dollar in 2025. This implies a substantial change from the previous report in which the highest value expected was $1,549. Therefore, the market seems to estimate that there would be no substantial changes in the Government’s exchange rate policy, in line with what is observed in the Rofex market.
Consulting firms that predict a The highest value of the dollar in December is: Econviews ($1,560), Invecq Consulting ($1,500), Empiria Consultores ($1,452), OJF & Asociados ($1,447) and Fitch Ratings and Santander ($1,400).
Finally, those with the lowest wholesale exchange rate are Pezco Economics ($973.5), Allianz ($930), Analytica Consultora ($1,032), Aurum Valores ($1,035) and Banco Supervielle ($1,020).
A Color Fact What the report provides is that The Argentine peso could be the currency in the region that appreciates the most in 2024. The Focus Economics report estimates that this year, The Argentine peso will appreciate 31.4% against the dollar and is only comparable with Peru, where the expectation is for the Peruvian sol to appreciate by 1.6%.
Growth: what is the expectation at the end of 2024
Regarding economic activity, Focus points out that GDP fell both annually and compared to the previous month in the second quarter. “High inflation ate away at purchasing power and fiscal austerity affected public spending and investment. However, the agricultural sector benefited from the end of the drought,” they said.
On the other hand, they highlighted that energy production increased thanks to the fact that Vaca Muerta and lithium production was approximately double the level in June compared to the previous year.
“As for the third quarter, it is expected that the year-on-year economic contraction deepens due to a less favorable comparison basis, although GDP should recover quarterly. Available data are cautiously optimistic: in July, exports rose by almost a fifth, while in August consumer confidence was the highest since President Milei took office. The government has continued its reform agenda, recently reducing a key import tariff and announcing measures to rationalize the public sector,” the economists said.
In this way, the consensus reveals a economic contraction of 3.5% by 2024, at the same level as the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) expectation for this year, who expect a decline of 3.2%.
Source: Ambito
