Analysts see how parallel dollars fall and explain the reasons for this sharp decline, but they find it difficult to put a floor in the current context in which money laundering has spread and inflation slows down.
The blue dollar and the financiers They come with a downward trend. The informal bill accumulates falls for the fourth day in a row and the price drops $40 so far this week. And the Cash With Settlement (CCL) and the MEP are along the same lines. When thinking about the reasons for this downward trend, analysts first mention the inflow of dollars from money laundering and it is difficult for them to put a floor on prices at this time given the extension of the asset regularization regime and the low demand for foreign exchange, which is overwhelmed by supply.
Let us remember that the prices of financial dollars have just collapsed in September, $54.46 (-4.2%) in the case of CCL and $64.93 (-4.4%) in the case of the MEP and this Thursday marked the second daily drop in a row: the stock market dollar pierced $1,200 for the first time in eleven wheels and he cable fell $1.71 (-0.1%) to $1,232.44. For its part, the blue gave in at $1,975 for purchase and $1,205 for sale this Thursday and, in September, the price lost $70 (-5.4%) compared to the close of August. Thus, it closed the second consecutive month with losses.
Money laundering, the main reason why the blue and the financiers give in
“There is more dollars from money laundering and that increases the supply. The deadline was extended by one month and that encourages the expectation that the market will continue to be more supplied than demanded”he says economist Pablo Ferrari to Scope. Explain that this dollar income is reflected in all parallel exchange rates because implies a greater entry of flow to the reserves. That, he points out, puts downward pressure on prices.
For Gustavo Quintana, from PR Change Operators“in the blue market the lack of pesos and the low demand for dollars is noticeable.” He points out that there is supply and not much demand and the prices translate that with drops. On the other hand, he mentions that “the income of dollars from laundering, added to the liquidation of exporters that remains at a good pace.”
This is rare at this time of year and this trend, which is combined with money laundering, fuels the supply of foreign currency in the parallel market and, at some point, infects the informal market.” He also adds that “the monetary restriction derived from “The Government’s measures also affect this scenario in which the abundance of pesos does not stand out.”
Camilo Tiscornia, director of TyC Economic Advisorsagrees in pointing out the predominant role of the asset externalization regime. “It plays, more than anything, the money laundering, which has now spread and that is an important element,” he says.
Is the dollar’s decline genuine?
Likewise, it mentions that, when observing the trajectory of the CCL and the MEP and what happens with the bonds, “it would give the sensation of a slightly more genuine improvement in terms of expectations, although I don’t know how long-lasting it will be.”
For Tiscornia, the lowering of rates in the US also has an impact and, on the other hand, there may be some type of improvement in confidence in the Government because they are very stagnant in the fiscal result. And it points out that “interest rates have been rising, compared to inflation and the intervention of the Central Bank (BCRA) in parallel dollars narrowed a bit, which could be a sign that the decline in exchange rates is more genuine at this time than a few months ago.
However, he recognizes that the stocks are still in force and that works in their favor, which is why everything that has to do with the exchange rate is a little limited and does not reflect the dynamics of a market without totally genuine restrictions yet.
Source: Ambito
