The “dialogue” opposition assures that it will not accompany the 2025 Budget bill if the Minister of Economy, Luis Caputois not prepared to defend it in Congress. This was confirmed to Ámbito by two deputies from the Federal Encuentro bloc and other legislative sources. A parliamentary defeat would give the Treasury Palace more discretion in the execution of spending, but it would be a bad sign for markets that look askance at governability.
Caputo announced in television statements that he will not participate in the presentation of the budget that the Minister of Economy traditionally makes in Congress. “I’m not going to attend that show, if any legislator wants to discuss something, they can come to my office,” said. Instead, he announced that other officials from his team will attend parliament.
The news generated immediate repercussions in a hot Congress that this Wednesday ratified the presidential veto of the university budget. Federal Meeting, the bloc led by Miguel Ángel Pichetto, anticipated that if the official does not participate in the debate, they will not support the Executive’s project.
“They invited us to a meeting with the minister and we told them that the place for this is Congress, within the framework of the commissions and that everyone can see what is happening,” said the Córdoban deputy Oscar Agost Carreño. Along these lines, he pointed out that “it is very important that you reconsider and realize that the Executive Branch is the main person responsible for approving the Budget, not so much to accommodate internal politics, but to give a message to the markets.” ”.
In response to the specific query, Carreño advanced: “For us to support the budget, it is essential that Caputo comes”. As Ámbito learned from legislative sources, the position is widespread in the bloc.
“The logical thing would be for him to come to present the project, our bloc proposed that he ultimately come at the end of the debate,” added deputy Mónica Fein in dialogue with Ámbito. Along these lines, he anticipated: “We are going to insist, but if he cannot come to defend the Budget he presents: Why should we accompany him?”
Budget 2025: the impact on the market
Given this scenario, the question arises: does the Government want the Budget to be approved? A rejection would force the extension of the year 2023, which was drawn up under assumptions of September 2022 and has the items completely liquefied by the effect of inflation. This would give Javier Milei greater discretion to execute the expense.
But in the Casa Rosada they assure that they prefer to have a clear roadmap to be able to manage better. At the same time, they recognize that a rejection would show some political weakness. That issue is closely followed by the markets.
“Having a law that starts the level of expenses in the parameters of 2024 would be an important example of governability, because the 2023 adjustment would be validated by a law,” explained the director of EPyCA consultants Martin Kalos. In that sense, he added that “a certain sector of the market is waiting for a sign of governance of this type.”
For Norberto Sosa, economist director of Investing in the Stock Market, “To the extent that you want to project a framework of greater institutional order towards the business community, the ideal is to achieve approval in Congress, with all the debate and negotiations that are necessary”. In addition, he added that: “There must be compatibility between the Government’s objective in the Budget and the goals that sooner or later are agreed upon with the IMF.”
Governors, the key
The governors are the key piece of the adjustment and of Congress. Aside from the cuts in works and non-automatic transfers this year, in the 2025 budget The provinces will lose US$5 billion due to specific allocations, according to a report by the Encuentro foundation.
In your X accountPichetto confirmed a call to the governors Martín Llaryora, Maximiliano Pullaro, Alfredo Cornejo and Rogelio Frigerio to the Budget commission. “It is time for the Government to listen to the provinces. Indiscriminate adjustment is not the way. We need a federal and agreed budget,” he said.
The provinces want works. The Executive knows that the total freezing of infrastructure, as occurred this year, is unfeasible. But rather than resuming execution, he prefers to transfer the funds and responsibility to the districts.
Source: Ambito
