He director of Wealth Management at Balanz, Pablo Castagna highlighted the improvement of macroeconomic variables during recent months when participating in the second panel of Scope Debate about Finance & Investments in the Milei era.
During the talk, moderated by Ámbito’s economics, finance and business editor, Juan Pablo Marino, Castagna broke the ice by highlighting that it exists today “an extremely favorable context, then a very complex panorama left by populism.”
“In recent months, the Government established a strategy to stabilize the economy and is carrying it out very efficiently, attacking inflation, raising the surplus and complying, with the exchange rate controlled and the gap shrinking to a minimum,” highlighted the achievements of the Milei management.
Along these lines, Balanz’s representative pointed out that “All this is the ideal scenario to think about getting out of the trap, which is what will ultimately bring investments. This goes hand in hand with the Bases Law and all the structural changes that the Government was proposing such as the RIGI and changing the energy matrix.”
And he anticipated: “There is already talk that in 2025 we are going to export oil and you have the banks starting to lend. Personal mortgage loans are growing between 10 and 20%, with which the capital market anticipates what is going to end up happening in the real economy.”
The reasons for the success of laundering
Castagna considered that the bleach It can end up at up to US$20,000 million and he highlighted: “It’s already a success and it’s going to be a bigger success.” with the remaining term for two reasons: the first is because after so many years of Populism and tangles in regulations “People couldn’t access the dollar and in Argentina we all think in dollars.”
“With money laundering, you gave the opportunity to many people who earned their well-earned white money and that, since he could not buy dollars for the minimum, because he was an importer, because of the thousand regulations that there were, today he has the possibility of taking those dollars out of the safe deposit box and going to the real economy and using them for what he wants,” analyzed.
And he completed: “The second point is that people realized that those dollars in the safe deposit box or in the mattress are completely inefficient. They generate zero in a world where inflation is 4/5% annually, so today you buy 20% less than you did 4 or 5 years ago. So, nothing better than being able to take out those dollars and put them to work.”
A calculated exit from the stocks and a stable dollar
Regarding the economic situation, Castagna referred to the exchange rate and considered that “The Government is the first interested in leaving, but it does not want to rush so as not to take risks, since he realized that he can control some very important variables such as the exchange rate.”
“I believe that if the Government could get out of the trap without consequences, it will do so tomorrow. In fact, if you were able to get these US$10 billion that the market is rumored to be from some international organization, you can open it and I hope it happens because it is what will allow the entry of genuine investments,” he stated.
Regarding the dollarmaintained that “There are different factors that make us think that it will continue at this level,” with the exception of some international shock, while he highlighted that “through laundering, 13 billion dollars entered the financial system and are going through the market to companies to be able to invest.”
The “big moment” of the capital market
About the performance of BalanzCastagna highlighted that “at a great moment in the capital market, all participants are taking advantage of it.” “What differentiates us from the rest is that we are the main debt underwriters in the Argentine market,” He stuck out his chest when pointing out that “this is one of the main functions of the market: to finance companies, which then use those dollars to make investments and provide jobs.”
“Technology transformed and revolutionized business. “We were already prepared before the pandemic and the pandemic accelerated everything,” maintained and compared that pre-pandemic “With digital onboarding we opened 30, 40 or 50 accounts per day in the best of cases and today we are opening between 700 and 800 per day, which end up in flow that goes to the market and also 60% of that flow is self-managed online by clients.”
The investment possibilities according to each profile
Finally, when providing advice for investors, Castagna noted: “When Argentine conservative client He likes fixed income, bonds, collecting coupons. Even when it is credited, he is happy when he sees it in his client account and in many cases they take it away.”
“We don’t like to improvise too much, part of it in Treasury bonds, We also follow up on many companies in Latin America and we have instruments to help get a little more rate and in Argentina we are the main underwriters in ON. You have Arcor, Central Puerto, Balanz”, he detailed.
And he countered: “For the slightly more risky profile I would add some stocks and sovereign debt, mainly to those who have a positive view of Argentina and agree that Argentina is doing things well and is going to consolidate this change in model.” In this framework, he highlighted elements such as the BOPREAL, the GD41 and long-term securities such as those of YPF, TGS and Pampa Energía.
“Without a doubt, the capital market is the best place to channel our savings and today companies are prepared to advise them, with technology and personalized attention. It is often associated with sudden movements, but with successful financial planning you can take advantage of those incomes,” concluded the director of Wealth Management at Balanz.
Source: Ambito
