The demand for raw materials in the coming months is going to go down slowly based on the latest data on the growth of the world economy, indicates a private report in which it is mentioned that the projections for this year are for an expansion of 3% compared to 3.2% last year.
This is pointed out in a report from the Puente investment fund manager. There he states that precious metals have reached their maximum in recent months driven by purchases by central banks of emerging countries.
“The expectation to globally is a slowdown in growth this year, which would be around 3% according to the consensus of analysts (compared to the +3.2% registered in 2023),” says the report.
He himself indicates that such circumstance “reflects some resistance in demand for raw materials and relative medium-term stability, in the absence of significant changes in other factors.”
“Meanwhile, the Offer will be influenced by weather conditions and geopolitical events, impacting prices,” says the study.
In that sense, it is assured that “the recent escalation in the war conflict between “Israel and Iran in the Middle East is a source of uncertainty and volatility in the markets.”
“This has driven the crude oil prices by 8.5% monthly average, with Brent projected to average US$82 a barrel in 2024, as long as short-term demand remains stable and supply conditions do not present additional changes to the voluntary cuts already announced by members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC),” the work adds.
In turn, Puente maintains that heThe precious metals called “safe haven assets” maintain their attractiveness, “with gold reaching all-time highs in the month, with the expectation being a price of around $2,550.” per ounce in the last quarter, exceeding previously estimated.” The report clarifies that the greatest demand came from central banks of emerging countries in the last month.
With a hand from the FED
The report highlights that “since the United States Federal Reserve (Fed) began to cut interest rates reference, and expected to continue downwards, this should mitigate the upward pressure on the dollar, benefiting commodity prices.”
That was reflected in the prices of recent months. The work indicates that the General Commodities Index (ICG) registered an increase of 7.9% in the last month “with generalized positive performances.”
“In this dynamic, the energy sector stood out, whose prices increased by more than 8%,” states the private study. On the other hand, the report says that ““The prices of the main crops continued to rise in the last month.”
“Corn stood out with 5.5%, followed by wheat with 4.3% and soybeans with 1.3%. Variable climatic conditions and other external factors have been impacting the prospects for these crops.generating uncertainty in the evolution of short-term quotes,” indicates the work. In this case, international prices will be influenced by climate problems in the United States.
Source: Ambito
