In historical comparison, the corona pandemic is unique. This also applies with regard to the influence on the fertility rate, as a recent study by the Vienna Institute of Demography of the Austrian Academy of Sciences (ÖAW) has shown: “From studies on the Spanish flu, for example, we know that at the beginning of the wave of the disease there was a strong… There was a decline and a recovery towards the end. This is typical of such turning points,” says one of the authors, Tomá Sobotka.
This trend initially became apparent nine months after the outbreak of the corona pandemic in 2020, when the number of births also fell. But shortly afterwards, surprisingly, there was a slight recovery, which remained at a very low level: a total of 83,603 babies were born in Austria in 2020, and a year later there were already 86,078 (source: Statistics Austria). After that, the birth rate collapsed again, as Maria Winkler-Dworak, OeAW scientist, says: “Between November 2021 and October 2022, birth rates fell in almost all countries, including here in Austria.” As a result, 82,627 children were born nationwide this year (see graphic for development in Upper Austria). The total fertility rate – the average number of children per woman – fell from 1.51 births per woman in November 2021 to 1.42 in October 2022.
“Cocooning effect”
“We were particularly surprised by the different pattern of rates during the pandemic,” said Winkler-Dworak. Birth rates in 2021 were initially higher than expected, especially in the Scandinavian countries, but also in Germany and Austria. The reason was the “cocooning effect”: “Due to the political Covid measures, people spent more time at home – in financially stable households, this may have been a good time for couples to plan further children,” says the researcher.
However, the observed pattern only occurred in those countries that have a better social system. When the measures expired, the cocooning effect disappeared again and fertility rates returned to the long-term trend.
Labor market and inflation
The scientists examined possible factors for the ongoing decline in birth rates: On the one hand, economic uncertainty plays a central role: “The labor market has recovered after the slumps at the beginning of the pandemic, which is encouraging rising birth rates. However, distortions in the supply chains also mean that Inflation has risen, which dampens the positive effect,” said Winkler-Dworak. The timing of the vaccination programs in the countries is also associated with a temporary decline in birth rates nine months later. Overall, it can be concluded from the figures that many women briefly postponed their desire to have children until they were fully vaccinated. The researchers emphasize “that the vaccinations themselves had no negative impact on birth rates.” Incidentally, the general downward trend continues: in 2023 the total fertility rate was 1.32.
Source: Nachrichten
