The presidential election In the US it will be in 12 days. A crucial event for investors, since winning and losing sectors of the economy will emerge from it, which will require strategic decisions. In the final stretch of the year, in the local market, some cedars They boast impeccable performance, almost all linked to Artificial Intelligence (AI). While others show growth potential that will depend on how the political scenario in the north develops: the possible return of Donald Trump or Kamala Harris’s debut in the presidency.
Paulino Seoane, head Investment ideas in Balanz– indicates in dialogue with Scope– that he S&P500the most relevant global equity index, accumulates a 20% rise in dollars since the beginning of the year, basically driven by the revolution of Artificial Intelligence (AI) and the entire value chain associated with it.
Seoane maintains that this race is in its initial stage, since AI applications are renewed and incorporate functionalities with increasingly lower frequency, “at least once a month there is a new version of the apps that imply a ‘quantum’ leap compared to the previous version,” he assures. And he adds that another fact that cannot be overlooked is that all of this happens in the last quarter of the year, which historically it is usually very positive.
The technological G7 boost
Martin D’Odoricodirector of Guardian Capital, He adds that the performance of the stock market this year was “remarkable.” Although much of these gains are due to calls “Seven Magnificent” that managed to surpass the main Wall Street indices in terms of performance. And that “the three North American stock market indices have risen quite a bit so far this year S&P500 (+21.79%), Dow Jones (+12, 42%) and Nasdaq (+20.07%”), he explains.
The US arrives at elections in an economic environment marked by inflation that is moving towards the 2% objective set by the Federal Reserve (Fed). Although the labor market remains firm, it is already showing signs of weakness, while economic growth surprised upwards, driven by strong dynamism in consumption, maintains D’Odorico. In addition, the electoral dispute is very close.
The best performing Cedears in 2024
Ignacio SniechowskiHead of Research Invest in the Stock Market Group (IEB)explains to this medium that, so far in 2024, the cedars with best performance (measured at CCL) are: Nvidia (NVDA) with a 181% increase, Spotify (SPOT), with a rise of 102%, Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM), with 93% and the Brazilian Embraer (ERJ), with an 88% increase.
Pablo LazzatiCEO of Insider Financefor his part, comments that the cedars in which he sees an investment opportunity are:
- NuBank: the Brazilian digital bank that is among the 10 largest unicorns in the world and in 2023 increased its customer base by 53%.
- Litium America Corporation: an American company that operates in the Jujuy fields in Argentina and is a great option towards the energy transition.
- ALIBABA and NIO: These two Asian giants have good potential in the medium term, since today their prices are close to the minimums and a buying opportunity presents itself given that their fall has more to do with the decline of the Asian market than with performance of the two companies.
Cedears: how to put together your portfolio for the elections
D’Odorico explains that predictions indicate a narrow victory for Donald Trump over Kamala Harris. In that case, if Trump wins, from Guardian Capital, certain Cedears are expected to benefit, like JP Morgan (JPM), due to its more flexible approach to banking regulation, which could facilitate leverage and credit expansion. Caterpillar (CAT) could also be favored by policies that strengthen national industry and promote manufacturing.
Furthermore, the Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) could benefit if Trump continues to support cryptocurrencies and establishes a more favorable regulatory framework. On the contrary, if Kamala Harris wins, the Cedears that could benefit are Micron Technology (MU), which would gain momentum with continued investment in technology and semiconductors, and First Solar (FLSR), as Harris is anticipated to drive the transition to renewable and sustainable energy.
For its part, Seoane recommends General Motors (GE) and Microsoft (MSFT); Broadcom AVGO (AVGO), Berkshire Hathaway (BRK-B), Caterpillar (CAT), Eli Lilly (LLY), Nvidia (NVDA), Oracle (ORC) and WalMart (WMT). “The portfolio includes everything from semiconductor companies to laboratories, software, industrial and global retail,” he points out.
Sniechowskifor its part, concludes that the portfolio it recommends is designed to capture upside potential, regardless of the election result. A Trump victory could clearly boost “Tech” companies and that is why he recommends adding a position in the Nasdaq ETF (QQQ), Alphabet (GOOGL) and Micro Technology (MU).
On the other hand, a victory for Harris inclines the strategist to think about a more defensive portfolio and, Therefore, it also balances the portfolio with the SP500 ETF (SPY), Berkshire Hathaway (BRKB), PepsiCo (PEP) and Eli Lilly (LLY).
Finally, the analyst comments that Uber (UBER) is a stock that has an attractive valuation and with news that provides “drivers” that drive share prices upward.
Source: Ambito
