With September closing with a 29% increase in car patents and the growth that continues to be recorded in October, compared to last year, the automotive sector faces the last part of the year with optimism.
This confirms that the market the negative climate of the first semester changedwith year-on-year drops of up to 35%, as happened in January and March.
In the rest of the months, year-on-year falls were recorded, although of lesser magnitude. On the other hand, since August the results have been positive. With this scenario, the expectation is focused on what will happen in the last quarter of 2024.
Cars: dealerships see an end to the year with good prospects
“We are seeing a month of October of about 41,500 units, with a margin of 2% up or down, taking cars plus light commercial vehicles. To this we must add approximately 5% of heavy vehicles,” explained the owner of a multi-brand automotive group.
One thing to keep in mind is that September had 21 business days and October has 22.
October is seasonally a month that is between 5% and 6% below September, although this time that margin could be narrowed.
If these forecasts come true and the total market ends up above 42,000 vehicles, it will surpass October 2023, when 41,942 vehicles were registered.
It will also be above the annual record for the entire 2019-2022 period. That is to say, It will be the best October in six years and we will have to go back to 2018, when 48,591 0km were patented, to find a greater volume.
“For November we expect a market of 33,000, which is normally 13% lower than October, November has 20 business days and for December we expect 22,000 since it is normally 25% lower than November and has 19 business days,” said the businessman.
With these figures, the car market, more light commercial, could be around 390,000 units by 2024, 8% lower than 2023, which had produced 425,000. At the beginning of 2024, a drop of between 20% and 25% was expected. With this new scenario, the total market – including heavy vehicles – will close 2024 above 400,000 units.
“These numbers allow us to project a 2025 floor of more than 450,000 vehicles and, if growth continues, it could reach 490,000. If macro conditions continue, we would have 2025 with significant growth of around 18% at the peak of 460,000 and 25% at the peak of 490,000,” he added.
If the most optimistic forecast for cars is reached and the heavy duty segment is added, next year the ceiling of 500,000 vehicles sold could be broken and be the best year since 2018. That year, 803,000 units were patented and in 2019 there were 459,000. The latter is the number that 2025 should exceed to achieve that goal
Source: Ambito
