The president of Invecq Consulting, Esteban Domecqrevealed that this year became the stage where “a transition process” was carried out from an Economy that had many problems towards “normalization”, although he revealed that there are still points to work on, such as giving the final blow with inflation, recover activity and lift the stocks.
This happened during a talk at the Argentina Fintech Forum which was carried out at the Usina del Arte. The panel “Economy, markets, and technology: what can we expect by 2025?” It also had the participation of: Soledad Lopez of Rava Stock MarketSantiago Bulat, as coordinator, and Agustín Ortiz Frágola of CFA.
Regarding inflation, Domecq expressed that this Government “avoided spiralization” but that “we have the final battle.” In this regard he said that It will be a battle that is won “sooner or later” but it will not be a homogeneous path since it will depend on the “noise” that there could be if “some adjustment to the plan is needed or not.”
Regarding activity, he expressed that “the real economy is breaking down at two speeds, but that today it is already going through the recovery phase since it hit a floor in the second quarter.” In this regard he said that mining, oil and agriculture They will be the spearhead in the recovery process that three stages.
Thus, he explained that these stages have to do with what happened in the previous Government, with what is happening this year, and what is to come. “For example, “Construction was very expansive in 2023, this year the sector has been affected and next year it will be good.” “Another driving force will be the financial system. Credit is one of the great driving forces,” he added.
Regarding the stocks, he said that today we have “stock and flow problems” and today we have no reserves, he added regarding the previous Government that we were “dependent” stocks. “The stock is still negative and the flow was surplus but recessive. The alternative is to live with the stocks for quite some time longer”he said and added “a successful recalibration must be done.”
In turn, Agustín Ortiz Fragola added about the exchange restrictions that “the stocks have a lot of layers” and that, according to his vision, “We are not going to wake up one day and they are going to remove it, but it is going to be much more gradual, where regulations are going to be lifted.”
United States: the key election that will define the future of Argentina
For Soledad Lopez of rava“next week is going to be key in the world” due to the elections in the US, in which Kamala Harris, for the Democrats, and Donald Trump for the Republicans, will compete. “Two different models are defined and Argentina has to renegotiate the agreement with the IMF”he recalled.
Furthermore, he mentioned as another key fact that On November 7, the Federal Reserve (FED) announces whether or not to lower the rate one more stepsomething that will impact emerging markets. “The FCI Money Markets are at their highest in the US and we wonder where those dollars are going to go”he wondered.
Source: Ambito
