In 2020, some states experienced a “red mirage,” in which Trump appeared to lead on election nightbefore a “blue shift” saw Democrat Joe Biden overtake him. Democrats tend to live in more populated urban areas, where vote counting takes longer.
The Democratic vote goes by mail
Democrats have adopted voting by mail more easily that Republicans after Trump falsely claimed that mail-in ballots are unreliable and that those ballots take longer to count than Election Day votes.
Democrats are outperforming Republicans in mail-in ballots once again this year. This is according to an early voting tracker maintained by the University of Florida Electoral Laboratoryalthough Republicans have narrowed the gap.
The hinge states, in the crosshairs for the vote count
There are seven battleground states that will likely decide the election, each with their own rules for handling and counting ballots. Here’s what to expect on Election Day and beyond:
Arizona
The vote by mail is very popular in this state, where nearly 90% of voters cast their ballots early in the 2020 election. While ballots can be processed once received, results are posted up to an hour after polls close. urns.
Mail-in ballots received on Election Day cannot be processed until the polls close. This is usually a considerable amount and can take days to count.
Georgia
It stands out for being a state of early voting in person and it is expected that between 65% and 70% of votes are cast in the first polling places. Votes by mail are 5% and can be processed within two weeks prior to the elections. His count It only begins on election day.
Under state law, all early votes (in-person and by mail) must count and report before 8 pm local on election night. This can create a “blue mirage” in favor of Harris at first and it is expected to have all the votes counted before midnight.
Michigan
Since the 2020 election, Michigan instituted the early voting in person for the first time and that jurisdictions with more than 5,000 people begin processing and counting mail-in ballots eight days before Election Day. Smaller jurisdictions can do so the day before November 5.
Officials hope those changes will allow results to be reported more quickly than in 2020. That created a “red mirage” on election night, with the first vote counts of the day favoring Trump.
Snowfall
The vote count in Nevada in 2020 was slow and changes were made to speed up the process. Counties were allowed begin processing and counting mail-in votes on October 21. Furthermore, you can begin tabulating early votes in person the same morning on election day, instead of the polls closing.
But Nevada could take just as long because it accepts late-arriving ballots by mail. Historically, those late ballots favor Democratsso a shift toward Harris could occur as votes are counted after Election Day.
North Carolina
Processing and scanning of mail-in ballots occurs before Election Day. After the polls close, The first results will surely be from these ballots, as will early in-person votes. Results of Election Day votes are expected to be ready by midnight.
Harris could lead from the start thanks to mail-in voteswhile Trump could close the gap as Election Day votes are counted. If the election is as close as suggested, North Carolina may remain uncertain for more than a week. In 2020, the media did not declare Trump the winner in North Carolina until November 13, 10 days after the election.
Pennsylvania
Pennsylvania is perhaps the most important battleground state. There was no clear winner in 2020 for four days after the election.as officials reviewed a huge number of mail-in votes.
in the state processing and tabulation of mail-in votes is not permitted until 7 a.m. on Election Day. With more Democrats than Republicans voting by mail, the first results of in-person voting on Election Day They probably show Trump aheadbut with a reduced lead as the counting of mail-in votes progresses.
Wisconsin
In this state, like Pennsylvania, the processing and counting of mail-in votes is also not permitted until the morning of the election.. Many of its large cities transport mail-in ballots to a centralized location, which can cause that important batches of votes be reported at the same time in the early morningafter the polls close.
In 2020, the city of Milwaukee, the state’s largest city, reported nearly 170,000 absentee votes in the middle of the morning. This put Biden in the lead for the first time, an expected result because of how the city processes those ballots and because of the Democratic tendency to vote by mail. A similar pattern is likely to occur in 2024.
Source: Ambito
