Trump and the gamblers won. Harris and the establishment lost

It is understood then that, although the numbers were very fair, to the point of statistical indifference, the establishment “will gamble” on Kamala Harris.

Where was the fight

The votes that were in dispute were those of Michigan (contributes 15 votes; in 2020 Biden won by 2.8%), Snowfall (6 votes, 2.4%)Pennsylvania (19 votes, 1.2%), Wisconsin (10, 0.6%), Arizona (11, 0.3%), Georgia (16, 0.2%) and North Carolina (16; Trump won 1.3%).

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The Lower House is where the greatest doubt lies. It will be several days before we know if the Republicans maintain their majority. In any case, the results are much better than expected.

Of these, Michigan and Wisconsin were supposed to be for the blues (they then added 251 votes), Georgia, North Carolina and Arizona for the reds (they reached 262 votes) and the big doubt were Pennsylvania and Nevada, where the polls spoke of a difference of less than half a point, which in recent days has been oscillating for and against the two candidates (estimates of “5.38” and RCP).

Thus, although a victory in Nevada was welcome – especially due to its effect on the Senate – it was not necessary to win the presidency, while what happened in Pennsylvania was crucial.

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In the Senate, the Republicans not only achieved a majority, but they would have between three and four more Senators than expected. The best thing for Trump is that those who enter “are suited to him” and he would not see the change in positions that he suffered during his previous administration.

At the time of writing these lines, the results from Alaska, Arizona, Nevada and Michigan were still being counted, but “el Rubio” had already secured 277 electors (“La Morocha, 244”) that could exceed 300.

What’s more, Trump secured a majority of 52 senators (the Democrats had the majority with 51), which could reach 55 once the results from Arizona, Nevada and Wisconsin are tallied. And although it is in doubt – there are many votes that remain to be counted – there is the possibility that it will also be done in the Lower House, where at the time of writing these lines the Republicans were on top.

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Trump’s victory is undoubtable and could add close to 300 voters. What’s more, since the 90’s he would be the second Republican to ascend to the presidency with the majority of the popular vote (we’ll see).

Contrary to all calculations – not even the bettors were betting on this – the numbers were 74% no, 26% yes; Polymarkets- Trump is one step away from becoming the second Republican president to win the popular vote in the last 32 years. ANDStrictly we will have to wait to see what happens with Californiawhich would take a couple of weeks, but as of this writing he surpassed Harris by 4.9 million votes, making his victory unquestionable.

The -second- best candidate

Possibly Michelle Obama would have been a better candidate, but when she was nominated in August as the Democratic presidential candidate, Kamala Harris seemed to have everything to win, the “momentum”, the support of women, artists, intellectuals and the media, but above all, an immense sum of money for his campaign.

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What Democrats and Republicans spent in this campaign broke all records. But if what happened proves anything, it is that “a wallet doesn’t kill a gallant.”

According to ADImpact, Democrats spent a total of more than $5.01 billion and Republicans $4.17 billion during this campaign (includes all positions and media): a record of $10.53 billion in advertising. In Pennsylvania it was US$637 against US$543 and US$308 against US$267 for the presidential election.

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In Pennsylvania, the two parties spent more than $187 per vote. The Democrats surpassed the Republicans by almost $100 million, but it was not enough: their campaign was flawed.

Kamala had the numbers. On August 15, the bets were 54 to 44% in her favor and those of “5.38” placed her 2.3 percentage points above her opponent; Even on October 4, RCP saw her 2.2 points ahead of Trump. but he lost

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In April, Donald Trump was arrested. Democrats hoped this would make him look like a bad guy. For independents and locals, this was a demonstration that, despite their money, they were not and did not place themselves above the law.

As expected, Harris won the majority of the female vote, but it was much less than expected, just 54%, and Trump managed to keep 52% ​​of the preference of white women. Clearly the Democrats’ focus on abortion and inequality did not motivate North Americans.

Let us not now rule out a fierce internal fight within the party, which would be divided between an extreme left and a center-left wing.

Why Trump won

He suffered two political trials, was found guilty of sexual assault and convicted on 34 charges in a court in Manhattan, faces 116 judicial questions and had more than 80% of the media against him and suffered an attempt on his life. None of this mattered, Donald Trump will be the 47th president of the United States (in favor, little more than Elon Musk – who now becomes a Myth – Joe Rogan and Robert Kennedy).

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On October 20, in response to Kamala Harris who, seeking to show herself as “people of the people”, assured – falsely – that she had once worked at a McDonalds, Trump stood behind the counter.

The reasons are countless – at least as many as there are Americans – although the general response is the same as in the two previous elections: Donald Trump has a mass of silent voters, some embarrassing ones, if you will, that the pollsters are not able to identify. and the media, which are mostly opposed to it, leave it aside.

In 2016, 13% of those who voted for him considered themselves “people of color” (blacks and Latinos); This time they were one in five, 20% and for a simple demographic reason – unless there is a terrible government – this promises to continue increasing.

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On October 30, in response to Joe Biden’s statements that his followers were “trash,” Trump got on a collection truck, showing his followers that he supported them and was not afraid to “be one of them.”

We already saw the thing about women.

Beyond the numbers and theories, to understand why he won, four photos are enough, which explain how the “Working Class” and the “Average American” feel that they have recovered the management of the country, from the hands of the intellectual elites.

If someone could have thought that the turn that the United States took in 2016, when it was elected for the first time, was a historical accident, today it is clear that the country changed and that change is here to stay.