The financial markets operated relatively calmly in the week prior to the runoff 2024, with a dollar which fell this week and stabilized in the middle zone of the 42 peso range, after an upward streak after the general elections.
At the same time, the country risk operated with fluctuations and remained this Friday at a level similar to that prior to the vote on October 27, maintaining Uruguay as the country in the region with the lowest levels of sovereign spread.
The economist Aldo Lema He highlighted in his X account the “calm” of the markets in the run-up to the second round and added that long rates in weights and in Indexed Units (UI).
The dollar calmed after hitting its peak in 32 months
With respect to the value of dollar, It closed this Friday at 42,600 pesos, below what happened in the middle of last week, when it was quoted at 42,913 pesos and threatened to exceed the barrier of 43 pesos, something that has not happened since February 2022.
It reached that point as a result of an escalation from the 40,984 pesos with which it had closed the day after the October vote. However, in the last few wheels he alternated between lower and higher, which led him to remain in the middle zone.
In any case, the US currency remains above the value that the market expects for the end of the month, which is 42.30 pesos, according to the median response from the analysts consulted monthly by the Central Bank of Uruguay (BCU).
Country risk, with fluctuations
On the other hand, the country risk remains at a level similar to that prior to the first round, above 80 points. In the case of Uruguay Risk Index (Irubevsa), which produces the Uruguayan Electronic Stock Exchange (Bevsa), is at 84 basis points, after touching a minimum of 69 points between the 12th and 13th of this month.
At the same time, the Uruguay Bond Index (UBI) of AFAP Republic It remained at a similar level, with 80 basis points, having reached 73 bp last Tuesday the 12th.
Meanwhile, the Emerging Markets Bonds Index (EMBI), from JP Morgan, It stood at 0.87, identical to the level prior to the general elections and with a lower level of oscillations than the other indicators.
The operation of the local market
At the same time, according to the weekly report of Gastón Bengochea Stock Broker to which he had access Scope, the Uruguayan bonds They experienced a moderate rise during the week. In that sense, the bond that matures in 2050 went from yielding 5.60% to 5.54% at maturity.
The entity highlighted the tender for Series 11 of the Treasury Note in pesos, with a cut-off price of 100.40 and a yield to maturity of 8.90%, while pointing out that a Monetary Regulation Letter (LRM) yields 8.99% with one year to maturity.
“They are super liquid instruments that allow the investor to obtain a profitability real, that is, above the price level”, they evaluated and pointed out that “it can be a good option for those investors who have a short time horizon.
Source: Ambito
