“On the other hand, Delgado needs a double agreement. In Deputies it has 49 seats and it would be a relatively similar scenario with Salle. The big knot is in the Senate, because it has no room for maneuver with 14 of its own senators, 15 with the vice president and one vote is missing. It has to unblock any approval of law based on an agreement with the FA, which raises the need for much tougher, more complex and deeper agreements,” observed Bottinelli.
And he warned that “another possibility is that some things, like the budget and the approvals of public companies, remain as they are, but always with a risk that the FA will carry out some censorship action or promote laws in the Senate and go to negotiate with Deputies.
Similarly, the political scientist Mauro House He confided to this medium that “Delgado has only one path, which is to agree with the FA” and recalled: “He has no other way out because in Uruguay he Parliament It has a very large specific weight. There is no logic DNU as in Argentina and the Executive power “You cannot govern by decree.”
Regarding an eventual Frente Amplista victory, he maintained that there is “a complex governability, but simpler, because it has a majority in the Senate and is missing two deputies, so it can negotiate case by case.”
“It is not easy because it does not have natural allies, but it has greater possibilities because it has the most important chamber, which approves approvals and has greater institutional weight,” Casa highlighted.
What will the home front be like?
In turn, the political scientist Jaime Yaffe highlighted the differences in the construction of both spaces. “He Wide Front It does not present a complex panorama because it is a single party. It has more sectors moderate and others more radicals, but everyone agrees based on a certain program, with an experience of 15 years of government where they learned to deal with internal differences,” he observed in statements to Scope.
To this he added that “the fact that the MPP, the sector to which Orsi belongs, has a very large predominance and makes things easier for him, plays in favor of a certain low level of risk.”
In the case of the CR, Yaffé considered that “Slim “It has a front with the internal party of its party and a set of other parties that in some cases have their own internal party, which represents a more complex panorama in principle.”
However, he thought that “things would be simpler than those Lacalle Pou had because the most complicated partner, who was Open Town Hall, “It has been greatly weakened, going from 11 to 2 legislators and its ability to influence, although valid in this context, has been greatly diminished.”
At the same time, he warned that “when differences are projected,” there will be one more factor among the Colorados. “There is a potentially conflictive situation that we do not know how it will develop, which is the double leadership of Andrés Ojeda and Pedro Bordaberry, “They are a main leader and a secondary leader in principle, but with more political weight,” he stated.
In parallel, Bottinelli considered that “in general terms the FA has a very homogeneous and compact operating logic, which does not mean that there may be moments of certain tension internally,” but he made this situation subject to “some negotiation for some law or for some focus on the budget, but without risk of rupture.”
Regarding the designation of Gabriel Oddone As eventual Minister of Economy, he considered that “it was an internal message that the line is going to be this” and anticipated: “In economic matters there are going to be discussions, that is why we have to see how the government ends up being formed and the effective role of Oddone in terms of decisions.”
Andrés Ojeda Pedro Bordaberry.webp
In an eventual second Coalition government, the director of Factum maintained that “the quantitative weight of the Colorado Party is different and that translates into negotiations in the distribution of ministries, while Cabildo Abierto has much less weight and its negotiation is going to be downwards” and stated that the PC “has had a very coalitionist profile and it does not seem that the relationship is going to be too difficult.”
Casa agreed that for Delgado “having a governance scheme more focused on a predominant role of the PC is good news, because it is always more beneficial to agree with fewer than with more actors, for a purely arithmetical matter,” although he ruled out “the idea of co-government” proposed at the time by Andrés Ojeda.
As for the FA, he reviewed that “it has already had this situation of being a coalition of parties with great ideological diversity, but it governed for 15 years and in general was able to align itself to obtain the most important laws of its three governments.”
The political scientist added to the PIT-CNT to the issue by pointing out that “it is a relevant actor with whom the FA has a historical and privileged link, with which there will be moments of tension and alignment,” also mentioning the possibility of “the theory of the government in dispute with the most moderate sectors to move the agenda towards the left margin.”
José Mujica, Yamandú Orsi, elections 2024.jpg
Mujica, Lacalle Pou and leadership
When asked about the role of Mujica, Casa considered that so far “it has been an asset for the campaign, beyond some out-of-tune outings that are to be expected because it is not going to stick to a script, in terms of the emotional reaction it generates for many. Uruguayans that somehow spills into Orsi.”
Thinking about a fourth Frente Amplista administration, he expressed: “I don’t see Mujica conditioning the government because he will be very much in retreat when Orsi takes office. He was the most popular figure of the last 20 years and he wants to leave leaving a political heir.”
After remembering the failed experiment that motivated the former vice president in that sense Raúl Sendic, He added: “If Orsi wins, he can sleep peacefully for the first time. He is not a great leader today, but since Presidency a lot of power is built.”
Bottinelli referred to the “important renewal process” of the FA and considered that “Mujica’s political activity will be until the last day, with the role that he himself wants to occupy, because he is the only important voice of the old guard. ”.
In turn, Yaffé predicted about the former president that “the most likely thing is that he will move to a very secondary role once the electoral campaign ends, because, beyond his will and fervor, it is what his health allows him and his doctors. “They tell him” and predicted: “It will be like a reference to consult on some issues, but I estimate that it will not have any relevant or diminished and less visible political role.”
Álvaro Delgado, Luis Lacalle Pouu.png
As to Lacalle Pou, Yaffé considered that Delgado “could play against that leadership that is much stronger than what Delgado’s appears to be,” but clarified: “This is a priori, because when people take office they show a profile that is not It was so obvious.”
And he compared: “Lacalle Pou managed to keep the Coalition five years, something that no analyst anticipated. Maybe Delgado will achieve it, but he is not the leader of his party and that is a position of greater weakness.”
In this regard, Bottinelli indicated that “the leader is not Delgado, it is Lacalle Pou, recognized by the PN and heading all the Senate lists” and anticipated that “depending on who wins, he may decide to remain as president of the PN or carry out the leadership exercise.” from his seat in the Senate.”
In turn, Casa stated: “It is more complex because Lacalle Pou is an active politician, very young and no one doubts that he will try to be president again. Then Delgado can end up in a more uncomfortable position, like he is warming up the chair for his friend. political leader.”
“I don’t think Delgado wants to emancipate himself, he recognizes that leadership. But I don’t rule out moments of tension, especially if things aren’t going well. In that case, Lacalle Pou could return with criticism and differentiating himself by saying that under his management the country was better,” he predicted.
Source: Ambito
