Ricardo Arriazu, The economist who best foresaw the evolution of the official economic program calculates that, If the Government remains “tough” in fiscal policy and continue By correctly intervening in the exchange market, inflation will continue on a downward path, ending in 2025 with a monthly rate of less than 1% and an interannual variation of less than 20%.
This was stated within the framework of the traditional New Year’s Eve luncheon of the Swiss Argentine Chamber of Commerce. It was presented by the president of the entity, Fernando Bekes, who highlighted the optimism with which companies face 2025 and stressed that they constitute “a chamber that brings together companies that look to the long term.”
One of the passages in Arriazu’s presentation that aroused the greatest interest among business executives was his references to exchange stocks.
Said “I hate the stocks, but I hate social collapse more” while clarified that for the moment it is necessary because it would be worse to take risks and he recommended “get it out, but little by little, when you can.” In this sense, he said that it is “more important to accumulate reserves than to expand credit.” Regarding the financial sector, he highlighted that credit grew 230% and deposits 130% from April to date.
After considering that one cannot live with inflation, “Either he kills her or he kills us,” He praised the approach of the economic team that understood that Argentina has two units of account, the peso and the dollar and that it is necessary to stabilize both to lower inflation. In the case of the peso, eliminating the fiscal deficit and with appropriate interventions for the dollar.
Regarding possible currency fluctuations, the economist indicated that “for the real exchange rate to rise there must be a crisis,” scenario that does not foresee.
Growth
Arriazu predicted that, if the Treasury Palace continues doing things well, The economy would grow no less than 5.2% next year, driven by the recovery of activity, wage growth and credit expansion.
Among the most dynamic sectors, Arriazu hopes by 2025 an expansion of 6% in field production, 10% in the energy sector and 15% for construction.
He also highlighted the contribution of energy to exports and estimated that next year the sectoral balance could show a surplus of 13 billion dollars.
In short, he estimated that the economy will have a rebound, but warned that to grow “there is still a lot to do”that is, carry out structural reforms.
He expressed his fear that the “political leadership” will not once again prevent Argentina from maintaining sustained growth. “Every time something is discussed in Parliament, the markets get scared,” he exemplified.
However, he surprised the audience when he said that “Milei turned out to be a better politician than an economist,” rescuing the initiative to propose reforms.
From this point of view he referred to history and highlighted that at the beginning of the last century the process of greatest expansion of Argentina took place on the basis of respect for private property, the independence of justice and insertion into the global economy.
Source: Ambito
