The local stock market flies in the first round of 2025which will take place this Thursday, January 2 after the two days without activity due to the holidays of New Year. He S&P Merval rebounds 4.2% after a streak of bad days. However, going forward there is uncertainty regarding a possible forward recovery before the inauguration of Donald Trump as president of the United States.
The stocks that rise the most
The rise of the stock of Bolsas y Mercados Argentinos (BYMA) stands out, climbing 7.1% this Thursday, driven by the lifting of restrictions on its availability of funds decided by the government of Javier Milei. The firm benefited from a decision by the national government to repeal a rule that restricted the distribution of dividends that it applied for 50 years. This measure allows the company to have $120 billion in dividends.
The decree was published on December 31 and repeals a 1974 regulation, which restricted the distribution of cash dividends of its net income by Caja de Valores to only 10% (BYMA owns 99.97% of this company). .
He leading index from the bag it climbs 4.2% to 2,639,595.51 units after flying 172.5% in 2024. In addition to BYMA, the papers that rise the most are BBVA (+5.8%), Supervielle Bank (+4.6%) and Macro Bank (+4.6%).
Local shares listed in New York rise up to 7.4% thanks to Bioceresfollowed by Telecom (+7%), BBVA (+6.5%) and Gas Conveyor (+6.3%).
The market expectation
“This Thursday you can see some recovery from the fall that was seen as a result of the falls of the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq in the previous weeks, but there is little expectation that this will continue forward until the cabinet in the US changes and I hope that a pessimistic trend will continue,” Eric Paniagua, from Epyca Consultores, tells Ámbito.
Likewise, he points out that this will be a week with little economic news, so he does not expect there to be big movements in the stock market. He anticipates that, if the downward trend continues in the US, we will see the reflection in the local stock market.
Along the same lines, Andrés Reschini, from F2 Soluciones Financieras, points out that “it is not clear what direction the markets will take after the opening of the year.” It indicates that the main stock indices closed a very good year on Wall Street but there was profit taking in the last rounds and it will be necessary to confirm if it is just profit taking or recalibration in the face of a higher risk premium due to political uncertainty and high rates for a longer time.
Meanwhile, at the local level, he considers that “what happens with Brazil continues to capture a good part of the market’s attention, which is also awaiting news on inflation, negotiations with the IMF and reserves, among other factors.”
Bonds and country risk
Debt securities in dollars recorded the majority of losses thanks to the Globals, which fell up to 1%, while the Bonares rose up to 0.5%.
In this context, country risk, which measures JP Morgan is located in 635 basic points.
Source: Ambito
