Argentina has a huge opportunity in terms of hydrocarbon exports. But Javier Milei based on the RIGI and its promotion of privatizations, it distances us from that promising future. The Libertad Avanza government proposed privatizing public companies from the beginning of its administration.
He wanted to do it with DNU 70/2023 but it was rejected in the Senate. He returned to the fray by presenting a first version of the “Bases Law” in Congress. There he again included the 41 public companies that he wanted to privatize, but after successive negotiations he had to leave only 9 of those to achieve approval. Beyond which he has insisted on the privatization of Aerolíneas Argentinas, showing that the issue goes beyond the consensus reached.
On the other hand, outside the Law Basesthe government completed the privatization and foreignization of IMPSA, this company manufactures turbines and generators for the entire region, it was nationalized in 2021. The libertarian approach is to remove the State from its strategic role. No developed country in the world has done this in its history.
The role of YPF, in improving energy exports, as a counter example of the above, cannot be understood outside the context of Vaca Muerta, one of the main reserves of shale gas and shale oil worldwide. The Argentine state company has assumed initial risks that the private sector was not willing to take, which allowed it to position the country as a net exporter of unconventional crude oil.
This initial bet has not only generated a surplus in the energy balance, but has also reduced dependence on hydrocarbon imports (for electricity generation), with a direct impact on macroeconomic stability. For example, thanks to the construction of the Néstor Kirchner gas pipeline from Vaca Muerta to the Province of Buenos Aires, or thanks to the reversal of the Northern Gas Pipeline, which replaces imports from Bolivia.
Vaca Muerta’s export potential is not only measured in dollars. In 2024, unconventional crude oil exports exceeded projections, with revenues of more than $5 billion net, with a projection of $7.5 billion in 2025, and could reach even higher figures by 2030. But the real challenge lies in connecting this growth with the improvement of social well-being. Here, the role of YPF as a state company is fundamental. Its leadership in the exploitation of unconventional resources could ensure that profits are strategically reinvested in the country, promoting regional development and quality employment.
In this sense, the energy transition is not only an environmental issue, but also an opportunity to reconfigure the Argentine economic structure. The possibility of integrating energy exports with redistributive policies that raise real wages and promote regional equality depends on strategic decisions.
In this sense, the average salary in 2024 for registered private employment was more than 20 points below December 2015, in real terms. International models such as Norway’s sovereign fund offer clear examples of how the capture of income from strategic sectors can transform lagging regions and deepen investments in strategic sectors. This without ignoring that the greater the withholdings requested or the regulations achieved, the lower the rate of investments may be. However, the optimum of these variables seems far from the RIGI, which presents a very large inclination for companies, and a very small one for regional development, value addition and real salary improvements.
YPF’s commitment to balanced development extends beyond Vaca Muerta. Initiatives such as YPF Litio, for example, seek to add value to the country’s strategic resources, transforming lithium into batteries and other high-tech products, thanks to associations such as YTEC that make up Conicet. This approach would not only make it possible to capture higher margins in the value chain, but also generate qualified employment and promote the development of local technological capabilities. However, this project is threatened by Milei’s policies, which promote privatization and the dismantling of the state role in strategic sectors.
For Argentina, the challenge is twofold: to consolidate its position as an energy exporter in transition and to guarantee that the income derived from this activity translates into concrete improvements for its population. This requires a state leadership that not only assumes the initial risks of development, as YPF has done with Vaca Muerta, but also establishes a regulatory framework that prioritizes social equity and long-term sustainability. In a country where regional inequalities are profound, the energy model can and should be an engine of inclusive development, led by the State with a clear vision of the future.
Alerting about the ideology of the libertarian government, and promoting the idea of a bridge between future income and current needs is of crucial importance to think about those instruments that allow living in a society with a higher quality of life.
Source: Ambito
