On the other hand, the BCRA, established new regulations that aim to promote currency competition with the aim of allowing people and businesses to use the currency they want in their daily transactions. Argentine President Javier Milei, who seeks to free Argentine markets, is in the United States to attend the inauguration of Donald Trump and after the investiture he will leave for Zurich to join the World Economic Forum in Davos.
IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said on Sunday that they had a “excellent meeting” with the president and its officials and announced that a delegation from the organization will visit the country next week.
Debt, in the sights of investors
“The Maturities in local currency and with multilateral organizations represent the least burden in the coming years, positioning them as the easiest to refinance, especially in the case of local debt,” he stated.
We must not lose sight of the fundamental thing. Debt is the flip side of the fiscal deficit. Without a deficit, the debt will gradually be reduced in real terms and also as a percentage of GDP,” estimated Eugenio Marí, Chief Economist of the Libertad y Progreso Foundation.
He added that this situation “makes repayment easierwhich is reflected in a lower risk perception. Even, through this path, Argentina could once again have access to voluntary international credit markets during 2025.”
“Let the Treasury borrow dollars from the IMF to recapitalize the BCRA, could immediately generate additional euphoria in the prices of local financial assets, and sovereign debt that lengthens the horizon of carry (trade)”, highlighted the consulting firm Eco Go.
“If the objective is to build an anchor that allows a scheme with fewer capital controls, the recapitalization of the balance sheet BCRA is a necessary condition, but not making an indebted Treasury more indebted.”he added.
“There is room for continued growth in dollar credit, which supports the accumulation of reserves. Since the beginning of the tax amnesty, andThe stock of credit in dollars to companies has increased from 5,000 to 10,000 million dollars”said a Barclays report.
Investments: what is the expectation in the short term
“During the week, a decline was observed in the local market, with greater depth in stocks than in fixed income. However, the exchange gap remained relatively stable around 15%,” Delphos Investment said.
“Maturities in local currency and with multilateral organizations represent the least burden in the coming years, positioning them as the easiest to refinance, especially in the case of local debt,” he stated.
“For now, strong natural profit-taking has been seen after a period of strong increases. But the delicate local situation and the challenging external context recommend closely monitoring the situation,” said VatNet Financial Research.
While evaluating the scope and implications of the advancement in coin competition, “The operators respond calmly and this is reflected in the continuity of the stability of financial dollars,” said economist Gustavo Ber.
“Continue sustained appetite for placements in pesos“, anticipating that another cut in the BCRA rate would soon arrive after the announcement of the reduction of the “crawling-peg” in February,” he estimated.
“The downward revision in what is expected for this year’s harvest due to less rain could be one of the reasons behind this movement (bearish market), in a context in which the net reserves (of the BCRA) are still negative, in addition to being an election year,” commented Noelia Lucini of Capital Markets Argentina.
“After the December inflation data, BCRA did not lower the interest rate, but it did lower the crawling peg to 1% monthly for February. The decline is a long time coming, but it is very likely that it will occur no later than early February, when the REM (BCRA expectations) confirms that inflation expectations continue to fall, now driven by the reduction in the devaluation rate,” noted Roberto Geretto of Adcap.
“In the coming days we will have greater certainty about the magnitude of the intervention (of the BCRA in the market to contain alternative dollars) with the publication of the daily monetary data,” said Portfolio Personal Inversiones.
Source: Ambito
