Dollars and negotiation With the International Monetary Fund In full development, the government must face a new interest payment to the IMF In the next few days. It is an expiration for around U $ S650 millionwhich will add reservations of the Central Bank.
This is the first payment of the year to the agency, corresponding to the interest for the debt of US $ 45,000 million that country has with the fund since Mauricio Macri requested a multi -million dollar loan in 2018. The commitment is dated February 1.
It is not the most appropriate moment. The decisions of the last days of the government showed the Emergency to get currenciesat a time when the strategy of strengthening the exchange appreciation as an anchor against inflation exacerbates the exit of dollars in the tourist balance. For example, the temporary decline of withholdings conditioned to an early liquidation reflects the commitment to resign collection in exchange for a greater currency flow in the short term.
Payment to IMF and red reserves
Last week, the BCRA ended with a seller balance of US $ 119 million for the first time in a long time. Although in the accumulated of the month it maintains a positive performance for US $ 1,535 million, the data gained greater relevance after the entity’s vice president, Vladimir Werning, revealed that In the first half of January he allocated US $ 619 million of reservations to intervene over financial dollars and contain the bullish pressure on the exchange gap.
This week began with purchases by the central, although It was not due to a flood of liquidation by agriculture after the decree that formalized the reduction of the aliquots of export rights. In fact, the operations were virtually paralyzed waiting for greater details by the agencies involved in the implementation of the measure. Thus, purchases for US $ 139 million between Monday and Tuesday were due, rather, to a decline in currency demand.
Yet, Net reserves are located on negative terrain for US $ 10,140 millionPersonal Investment Portfolio estimated (PPI). It is a calculation made based on the IMF methodology, which excludes deposits in foreign treasure currency (US $ 3,291 million) and the paying payments guided for the next 12 months (US $ 2,098 million) .
“Even Despite having acquired a record of US $ 23,172 million in the official change market in the Milei era, net reserves under the IMF methodology improved on the margin from -U $ s11.471 million At the time of assuming the new government, ”said PPI. Although he clarified that liquid reserves, which is what the BCRA can intervene both in the official change market and in El Financier . “Therefore, Liquidity remains at very high levels After the payment of capital and interest of the global and bonars in January and the intervention for US $ 619 million in the first half of the month, ”said the firm in a report for its customers.
The negotiation with the IMF
It is in that framework that will arrive in new payment to the IMF. The following two maturities with the agency are scheduled for May and August. Being interests, these cancellations are not shoes with disbursements. In addition, the extended facilities program signed in 2022, with which the debt taken in 2018 was refinant, already culminated. Today, The Government seeks to accelerate an agreement for a new program that includes additional indebtedness and a disbursement scheme that allows you to underpin net reserves and approach the removal of the exchange rate.
This Tuesday, the work of the face -to -face mission of the organism that had arrived in the country last week to advance technical discussions. At the close of this note, the parties had not given major details about the advances. Fund sources were limited to pointing out that “the dialogue was highly constructive and positive,” and that “technical teams will continue to talk in the coming weeks.”
As he said Scope, The main point of discussion is exchange policy. The IMF considers that the exchange rate is appreciated and asks the Government to make the “crawling peg” more flexible. In an interview with this media, the former director for Argentina in the agency, Héctor Torreshe considered that there will be agreement but that The question to elucidate is whether it will contemplate an important initial disbursement (Of US $ 11,000 million?) That reinforces reservations and can be used to intervene and open the stocks or if fresh dollars gradually arrive in successive installments. “If the exchange policy is not modified, I do not see an initial disbursement of US $ 11,000 million”held.
In the last hours, two large international banks referred to that point. Morgan Stanley and Bank of America They published reports in which they analyzed the macroeconomic scenario of Argentina and the negotiation with the IMF. Both were optimistic that an agreement is reached during the first semester and that includes a significant initial disbursement: of US $ 5,000 million in the case of Morgan Stanley and between US $ 5,000 and 10,000 million in the Bank of America.
The first of them considered that the understanding would contemplate, in its base scenario, a gradual disarmament of the exchange rate. The second, projected that there would be a continuity of the administered flotation of the dollar to the elections and that, then, it would advance in a exchange unification in which the exchange rate could reach $ 1,400.
The Government echoed those comments and quickly went out to the crossing to try to prevent its promise from maintaining the “crawling paste” in the monthly 1% from February loses ground in market expectations. “Nothing that is being said about the agreement with the fund is correct. Difficult to err in everything, but they are achieving it, ”said Minister Luis Caputo In his account of the social network X.
Source: Ambito
