The markets started the week with volatility after the tariffs announced by Donald Trump to Canada, Mexico and China, They strengthened to the dollar and caused a sale Massive actions. However, two of those countries reached an agreement to delay them for a month, which brought some calm to Wall Street and improved the day, but for Argentine actions and bonds They did not reach and closed in red.
And it is not for less. Beyond Trump’s setback, tariffs are a reality, and investors already discount the return of a unbeatable dollara more adverse external scenario for emerging markets and greater inflationary pressure globally. As prices go up, the Federal Reserve (FED) could respond with higher interest rates, which would end up closing Argentina’s access to international markets for the rest of the year, since the government would only consider borrowing to rates above 9%.
The last report of Morgan Stanley Analyze the impact of Trump tariffs in the region. For the bank, the Argentine case is more than encouraging, since the Republican onslaught would not feel so much, or at least directly in the national economy. Not so for Colombia and Mexico that would vehemently suffer the tariff coup.
Tariffs and impact on Argentina
“Limited impact, but with risk factors”, That is the conclusion of the giant of Wall Street For Argentina. Maintains that “the direct impact would be limited, since Only 8% of its exports are destined for the US market” Even so, remember that there are “second instance” factors that could influence the local economy and “its fragile financial recovery.”
And in line with some city’s looks, he says that “A possible appreciation of the dollar against emerging currencies could make Argentina’s access to external financing difficult. In a context where the government of Javier Milei It seeks to restructure the economy and restore the confidence of international investors, any hardening of credit conditions would represent an additional challenge for the country’s financial stability. ”
The bank giant concludes that with an economy in full transition, “Argentina is facing a challenging scenario”Marked by several open fronts in areas such as the prosecutor, monetary and commercial. And he warns that despite the fact that the tariffs imposed by the US “are not perceived as a direct threat to the national economy,” The country must deal with the side effects of increasing volatility in international markets.
Strictly speaking, the Argentine assets They failed to decoup into the global trend for the second consecutive Monday (the past was Deepseek). This happened despite the exchange ratewhich in unexpected situations worldwide usually acts as a armor. In the City they explain that this is because the Argentine market It is highly speculativewith a behavior marked by the “pure beta”. That is, a place where investors prioritize rapid profits on founded investments, which generates high volatility. In this context, prices range drastically in response to rumors, expectations or external movements, rather than solid foundations.
Bonds, actions and commodities: the impact
Sergio Rodríguez Glowinski, agent Chicago bag (USA), comments in dialogue with Scope that although Trump was not yet pronounced on possible tariffs for Argentina “It is likely to do soin particular in sectors in which the country competes directly with the US, such as food supplies. ”
Rodríguez Glowinski points out that Argentine exports to the US include products such as oil, gold, aluminum, silver, lithium, wines, meat, honey and lemonswith tariffs that vary between the 10% and 55%. And although many of these products are subject to quotas, such as The hilton on the meatwhere the initial tariff is 10%, once the quota has been exceeded, the encumbrances increase significantly as the exported amount grows.
The expert in financial derivatives analyzes that A strong dollar drives the increase in the yields of the US Treasury Bonds And, as a consequence, raise interest rates globally, which raises a world flow to the American currency.
“These movements have a large -scale impact and directly affect Argentina.” Well, if the rates in the US do not decrease, The entry of capitals that return to the US economy is favored To take advantage of the greatest yields. And this for a country like Argentina, which depends on external flows, represents an additional difficultybecause it makes its financing more expensive and its economic situation further complicates.
THE CEPO COITD: How far it reaches
Mariano RicciardiCEO of BDI Consultant -In dialogue with this medium- slips that the impact on Argentine bonds and actions is difficult to measure due to the existence of the stock and of a closed economywhich acts as a armor in unforeseen situations worldwide.
However, he insists that any measure, such as the tariffs that Trump was expanding in the last hours, generate a loss of efficiency in companies. “This leads to a reduction in its profits and increased prices, which, in turn, reduces production and negatively affects the benefit of companies. This indirect effect is also reflected in The present value of the actionswhich decreases, ”says Ricciardi.
Morgan Stanley 2.jpeg
Then Argentine actions and bonds No They will be directly affected, but global volatility will influence their behavior, which adds that: “The coins of emerging countries such as Mexico and China will devalue, which reduces its competitiveness and also affects Argentina, that loses in front of these countries. This exerts additional pressure on the dollar at the local level, which some consider that it is late, ”he says.
The strategy to follow in the midst of volatility
The investment advisor, LEANDRO MONNITTOLA Remember that in the volatility in the markets and greater uncertainty, the negative flow will increase in Argentine assets. This is because “Fly to Quality”He directly hits the instruments of emerging markets, such as Argentina.
And it is natural that the investor seeks to reduce the risk of investments and Preserve capital Amid the marketing of the market, so it weighs assets considered safer, such as US Treasury Bonds or precious metals, such as gold.
Monnittola concludes that in this context, The demand for safer assets tends to increase, which can cause an appreciation of them, such as the rise in the price of American treasure bonds or strengthening the dollar. On the contrary, the most risky assets, such as companies, emerging market bonds or commodities, usually experience a decrease in their demand and, therefore, in their value.
Source: Ambito
