The return to the power of the US president, Donald Trump, Determine a Tailor in foreign policy of countries, which already respond to protectionism. It is something that Start implementing as a computer method. On the other hand, at the local level it means strict alignment In geopolitical terms. In that sense, in front of the US tariff rise, the industrialists ask the government to pragmatism To reduce the Consequences of market relocationespecially of Asian products.
For him Scalabrini Ortiz Studies Center (Cease), Trump’s assumption seems to be a milestone that marks a time change, where the Globalism predominant in recent decades “succumbs to a growing nationalism In western powers “
In that context, the threat of Imposing high tariffs by Trump works as a disciplining factor For those countries that argue the return of deported migrants or point to the replacement of the dollar as an international currency, promoted by the BRICS alliance.
Thus, the week began with the announcement of the US president of impose 25% tariffs for Mexico and Canadaas well as a 10% Additional to China.
Hours later, it was resolved to leave the measure in suspense for thirty days, except for the Asian giantwho responded Applying 15% rises to coal and LNGand levies of 10% on crude oilagricultural machinery and some vehicles.
Although global markets responded negatively to what the Wall Street Journal defined as “The most silly commercial war in history”, There is consensus among international analysts on a new scenario in the world economy, where free trade It will be challenged by increasing protectionism by the powers of the West.
For cease, the economic policies linked to foreign trade that Trump takes just “They are going against the free import speech”, Falling by President Javier Milei.
Where Argentina is located in the face of the US threat of tariff
In front of the question “How is Argentina positioned against the beginning of the change of time?“With a president dystopic“The cessation replies. “Our libertarians combine the Antiprogressive agenda of its sponsors of the center, with a cultural colonialism and geopolitical where submission to the US prevails as an interpretation of national interest, ”defines the report.
In the field of external economic policy, “it translates into an extreme liberalism” that prioritizes integration with the West through Free Trade Agreements (TLC) with the US and Europe over Asia.
For industrialists, Align to ideologically in geopolitics is not convenientbut should reign pragmatism. Marcelo FernándezPresident of the General Business Confederation of the Argentine Republic (CGERA), understand that Argentina “should take the best measures that agree” and if other countries already apply them, “copy them”, but “go in contrast of those who think they do things well”
“I think that It is a great concern of this government to lower inflationbut also judges, in our opinion wrongly, that the industry is inflationary and that the competition with the outside allows prices to be lowered, but It would be necessary to see how limit”, Reflects the businessman.
“We bet on that dialogue because If other countries are being protected and defended, I think that in Argentina we should talk about value chain development that are competitive and that can generate a strong presence of the product in the domestic market, ”he highlights in dialogue with Scope.
For its part, Mauro Gonzálezhead of Federal Confederation SMEunderstand that the historical dispute that governments give “has to do with defining what country we want to be, if rentier either industrialist“, While agreeing that Argentina” is going against what the powers propose “and is not responsible for” promoting exports and added value in raw materials. “
What is the current situation of the industry
According to the consultant Vectorthe data of the Monthly Economic Estimator (EMAE) of November, – a positive 0.1% year -on -year and a 0.9% monthly- indicate that The recession In aggregate terms “It was left behind”, But the recovery “He has nothing homogeneous”
For the firm led by Eduardo Hecker, for 2024 The sectors linked to the manufacturing industry have had systematic fallslike the construction and the trade. While, on the other hand, the drivers of the activity are linked to primary activities, such as the exploitation of mines and quarries, the agricultural sector, and fishing.
“This shows a productive model (if there is) Based on primarization and external market orientedwhich is consistent with the imperative search to generate currencies from exports and also saving the same via cooling of domestic consumption, ”analyzes vector.
Two important indicators to graph the industry situation are The use of installed capacity and industrial production index. Both, unlike EMAE, which also measures those sectors not linked to the industry, show interannual falls even in the month of November.
In the first case, the general level of the use of installed capacity more than 4 percentage points falls (from 66.4% to 62.3% between one year and another), while the industrial production index registered a decrease of 1.7% per year In the same period.
Source: Ambito
