On Wednesday evening they met one last time before the election in a TV duel: Chancellor Olaf Scholz (SPD) and opposition leader Friedrich Merz (CDU), whose party is currently clearly leading the recent surveys with values between 30 and 31 percent. The encoder for the SPD by Chancellor Scholz is much less rosy with 15 to 16 percent.
But even if both parties come together, according to this data, at best only 47 percent, a majority of mandate in the Bundestag could end up for a black and red coalition. Cooperation between the CDU/CSU and SPD is currently the most likely among German political observers.
The fight with the hurdle
But whether the mandates are enough for this also depends on how many parties move into the Bundestag. For a long time, both the Left Party and the Alliance Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW) and the FDP fought with the five percent hurdle.
Die Linke with its co-top candidate Heidi Reichinnek, particularly present on social media, seems to have shot the hurdle at least according to the latest surveys (six to seven percent). BSW and the FDP with their top candidate Christian Lindner commute, according to surveys, commute just under or just under five percent with values.
If only one of these three parties will make it to the Bundestag, a black-red coalition or mathematically perhaps even a coalition of CDU/CSU with the Greens and their top candidates could-based on the current surveys. Robert Habeck (The latest survey data: 13 to 14 percent).
If two or all three smaller parties make it to the Bundestag, the CDU/CSU and SPD would probably have to take a third party into a possible coalition.
The selection is not huge. An alliance with the right-wing party AfD and her top candidate Alice Weidel (with 20 to 21 percent currently clearly in second place in all surveys) are excluding all other parties. And even with the Left Party, the Union and SPD do not want to go to a government. For the SPD, Olaf Scholz finished this on Wednesday evening due to the Ukraine policy of the left. According to Scholz, the same applies to the BSW.
Meanwhile, Green top candidate Habeck did not end a red-red-green coalition with the left party after the Bundestag election on Sunday. However, no majority are emerging in the survey data.
Source: Nachrichten
