Even if the crisis team in Upper Austria did not yet have any valid figures on the distribution of the omicron subtype BA.2 by Friday, simulation researcher Niki Popper says one thing is still clear: the current wave will last longer and may be higher, that is his basic assumption for the Country Upper Austria. Despite a longer high-incidence phase, he assumes a lower hospitalization rate.
In his weekly analysis on Thursday evening, Popper presented the country with two scenarios for the two omicron waves BA.1 and BA.2. If they overlap at the peak, the BA.1 wave gets higher. Or there are two swings, which means that the current wave is lengthening, according to the office of Governor Thomas Stelzer (ÖVP). Previous data would show that despite the increasing number of infections, the hospitalization rate is likely to decrease.
Lower hospital utilization than feared
Specifically, Popper expects a seven-day incidence of 3,500 in the third week of February. He expects 300 corona patients in the normal wards in the last week of February and 35 sick people are likely to need intensive medical care in mid-March. Just a week ago, he assumed the most likely scenario was around 350 patients in normal wards in mid-February and 70 intensive care patients at the end of February/beginning of March.
On Friday, the country’s dashboard showed 6,691 new infections and a seven-day incidence of 2,609. There were 230 (plus 16) corona patients in the normal wards of the hospitals and 20 (minus three) in the intensive care units.
Source: Nachrichten
