US intelligence is uncertain, they said, whether Russian President Vladimir Putin is determined to go on the offensive.
But Putin wants to have all the options at his disposal: from a limited invasion of Ukraine’s pro-Russian Donbas region to an all-out invasion of the neighboring country, the officials said.
Russia has repeatedly denied that it is planning to invade Ukraine.
For US intelligence, if Russia opts for a large-scale attack, the invading force could take the capital, Kiev, and overthrow President Volodymyr Zelensky in a matter of 48 hours.
Such an attack could leave between 25,000 and 50,000 civilians dead, in addition to between 5,000 and 25,000 Ukrainian soldiers and between 3,000 and 10,000 Russian soldiers. It could also trigger a flood of refugees of one to five million people, mainly to Poland, officials warned.
However, the Ukrainian Presidency itself considered that the chances of reaching a “diplomatic solution” to the crisis with Russia are “considerably higher” than those of a military “escalation”.
In addition, in a statement, he added that he considers that, although the concentration of Russian troops on the border that began in the second quarter of last year is maintained, their objective is not an invasion, but “to cause massive psychological pressure.”
However, Ukraine and its Western allies must “prepare for all possible scenarios and we are doing it 100%,” the note added.
“The madness and alarmism continue. What if we said the US could take London in a week and kill 300,000 civilians? All of this based on anonymous intelligence sources,” wondered Russia’s deputy ambassador to the UN, Dmitry Polyanskiy.
President Joe Biden has arranged to send US troops to Poland to protect NATO members, while diplomats are working hard to try to persuade Russia to withdraw its troops from the Ukraine border.
The first contingent of US soldiers arrived on Saturday.
Moscow has also announced joint military exercises with Belarus, for which it has sent several battalions north of Kiev and to the Brest region, not far from the Polish border.
US intelligence services have concluded that Russia continues to amass a significant military force on its border with Ukraine. Two weeks ago, a total of 60 Russian army battalions positioned themselves in the north, east and south of Ukraine, particularly in the Crimean peninsula, which Russia annexed after a 2014 invasion.
But by Friday there were already 80 battalions and 14 more were on their way from other parts of Russia, US officials said.
They added that some 1,500 Russian special forces soldiers known as Spetsnaz were deployed along the Ukrainian border a week ago.
A major Russian naval force is also positioned in the Black Sea, equipped with five amphibious assault ships that could be used to land troops on Ukraine’s southern coast, US officials said.
movements
Additionally, they added, six other amphibious ships were seen leaving the Barents Sea north of Russia and sailing past the UK and through the Strait of Gibraltar, apparently en route to the Black Sea.
In addition, Russia has stationed warplanes near Ukraine, as well as bombers, anti-aircraft and missile batteries, the officials said.
On Thursday, the United States said it had evidence that Russia was preparing a video showing a fake Ukraine attack that would serve as a pretext for a real Russian attack on that country.
Russia annexed Ukraine’s Crimean peninsula in 2014 after the then Moscow-friendly Ukrainian government was ousted by a wave of protests and replaced by a new, right-wing nationalist, strongly anti-Russian and pro-Western one.
Crimea is a key territory for Russia, because its Black Sea fleet is anchored there and because its control ensures Moscow an outlet to the Mediterranean Sea, something considered vital for Russian security since the time of the czars.
Source: Ambito
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