Shortly after dying Pope Francisthey started the bets about who his successor would be. At that time, we commented that the betting houses already presented the opportunity to “risk some pesos”, even to candidates as impossible as the singer Bono.
Betting online then saw Cardinal Italian Pietro Parolin paying 4/1, to the Filipino Luis Antonio Tagle 9/2 Al Ghanés Peter Turksson 6/1 and Hungarian Peter Erdo 7/1.
For Odds Checker Tagle he was at the head 3/1, they were followed by Paracolin 4/1 and then Turkson and Erdo 6/1. William Hill spoke of 7/4 for Tagle and Parolin, 8/1 for Erdo and 10/1 for Turkson.
Paddy Hill for her side had Parolin first with 7/3 followed by the Italians Angelo Scola and Tarcisio Bertone with 7/2, 5/2 for Turkson and 14/1 for Erdo and 20/1.
From then on for a while, things are somewhat more ordered, We already have more than US $20 million at stake (50 times more than in 2013) and from tomorrow, after the double oath of the Cardinals Secret, everything will be pure speculation.
While bets have proven to be much more effective on several fronts than specialists and pollsters at the time of determining the will of the people, which we saw with the victories of Javier Milei and more recently with that of Donald Trump (to which the establishment saw losers), the question with the papables is much more difficult. Not only more difficult, but more confusing, because each medium and each commentator have their preferences and do not hesitate to promote them.
At this point, many will have heard that of “Chi enters Pope, Cace Cardinale” (“He who enters the conclave as Pope as a cardinal”), but the Vatican tradition also has other sayings, for this case, “to a grasso Pope, a lean pot They tend to have a vision and theological inclination very different from those of their predecessor.
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While there are those who, they understand that the election is marked by the Holy Spirit, it is not the “third person of God” who chooses the new pontiff but the individual freedom of the cardinals, which is expected to be open, they are obeyed the divine inspirations. That “Spiritus sanctus non semper chosen, thirst semper ducit” and “Tria unnota sunt Romae: proximus potato, Tempestas et corcinalis” (“The Holy Spirit does not always choose, but always guide”; “Three things are not known in Rome, the next Pope, the weather, and that there is in the heart of a cardinal”).
When Jorge Bergolgio was chosen in 2013, the favorites were Angelo Scola, an Italian traditionalist, Marc Ouellet, a somewhat more moderate Canadian, the Brazilian Odil Christoph Schonborn, another moderate reformist.
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Bergoglio was not among the most likely candidates. In fact, the betting house placed him in the 15th place after having left second in the 2005 election, under Joseph Ratzinger, for the worse he was old (76 years) and came from a series of political defeats in Argentina (equal marriage law).
Among the few things we know today is that the cardinals do not want to choose someone who “has a past” (Parolin and Tagle have problems in this regard), which opens the door to what would be third lines such as the Algerian/French Jean-Marc Aveline (a moderate reformist) or the Dominque Mamberti Corso/Moroccan (a moderate traditionalist). We are also clear that we have no charismatic character such as Carol Wojtyla or a top -level theologian like Ratzinger.
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All this makes any bet more difficult and that there is nothing firm to grab us, so it is just a game for the riskiest. Despite this, about 17 betting houses already have 82 open positions in favor of different cardinals, being able to say that Parolin is first (5/2), they are followed by Tagle (10/3), Matteo Zuppi (7/1), Peter Turkson (13/2) and pizzaballa pierbattist (9/1).
We will have them aware.
Source: Ambito
