Iranian parliament increases pressure so that the Government to consider the closure of the Ormuz Straita strategic step where a significant part of world energy circulates. However, the final decision falls to the Supreme National Security Council, the body responsible for defining the key defense and security policies in the country.
In response, the United States vice president, JD Vance, warned Sunday that such a measure would be “A suicidal act” For Iran, because its economy depends largely on the trade that flows through that seaway. According to his statements, closing the Strait would affect both Iran and the rest of the world.
The situation has turned on global alarms, since approximately 20% of the world and gas supply passed through the Ormuz Straitconnecting the Persian Gulf with international markets. An interruption on this route would cause an immediate rise in crude oil prices and could generate an energy crisis globally.
The conflict has climbed even more since former president Donald Trump ordered attacks to three nuclear facilities in Iranian territorya decision that led to the United States to involve directly in the conflict with the Islamic Republic. Although it was a specific front, economic and geopolitical implications were significant.
While Iran issued similar threats in the past, experts point out that historically the country opt for less extreme tactics. Even so, this time the situation seems more tense, especially after the recent comments of General Mohsen Rezaei Member of the Supreme National Security Council who said on state television that the country would respond with a close closure if the United States deepened its military intervention.
The projection of economists if the Ormuz Strait is closed
From the economic point of view, specialists maintain constant surveillance about this possible action. JPMorgan Chase analysts described her as “The worst possible scenario”projecting that a total blockade of the Strait could raise oil prices to The $ 120 per barrelwhile promoting inflation in the United States up to 5%.
Despite threats, some analysts such as Javier Blas, a columnist specializing in Bloomberg’s energy, suggest that Iran could be using these statements as a pressure tool rather than a real plan. In fact, closing the Ormuz Strait would also negatively affect Iranian exports, which depend on that route to send more than 1.3 million barrels of daily oil abroad, according to CEIC data.
Other consequences if the Ormuz Strait is closed
The narrow key maritime strip between the Persian Gulf and the Arabic sea, represents an essential route for global energy transport. It is estimated that approximately 20% of world oil production travels therewhich makes this way a strategic point for international economy and energy security.
In this context of growing tension, Iran has launched a direct warning to the United States, noting that there will be “Heavy consequences” as retaliation for its involvement in recent bombings in the region. Iranian authorities consider that US intervention constitutes a direct threat to their sovereignty and stability.
In addition, Tehran warned about the real danger of the conflict spreading beyond its borders, affecting the entire Middle East. The fear of a regional escalation has generated global concern, both for the possible humanitarian consequences and for the economic impact that an interruption of traffic in the Ormuz Strait could cause.
Source: Ambito
