Economist Sebastián Menescaldi questioned the accumulation scheme of reserves of the Government of Javier Milei. He warned that the model is not sustainable, and requested urgent changes after the elections.
Amid the implementation of the new exchange regime with flotation between bands and a renewed commitment to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the economist Sebastián Menescaldi, Associate Director of the consulting firm Eco, launched harsh criticism of the official scheme to accumulate reservations. He assured that the model promoted by the government of Javier Milei “It is not sustainable” in the medium term and warned about the financial risks facing the Argentine economy if corrections are not held after the October elections.
After the agreement reached with the IMF, the Executive promised to reach a goal of accumulation of reserves of US $ 5,000 million for June. However, The government itself clarified that the Central Bank (BCRA) will not intervene in the market unless the exchange rate touches the band of the band, currently at $ 1,000.
To approach that objective, the Ministry of Economy advanced with Two central measures: The bidding of the 2030 —Bonos in pesos that are bought with dollars – and the signing of a new repo with international banks for US $ 2,000 million. To this was added a plan to encourage the banking of the dollars that the Argentines keep “under the mattress”, which was also well received by the bottom.
“After October the scheme will have to change”
Despite those signs, Menescaldi was categorical: “This plan is not sustainable”. In statements to the environment Now playHe explained that the government needs to generate dollars genuinely. “You have to increase the demand for weights, that exporters liquidate and leave the weights in the system, or get foreign direct investment,” he said. According to the economist, those are the only viable routes to recompose reservations and guarantee stability.
Dollar Blue
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Menescaldi also questioned the viability of current instruments. “In the short term it can work, but if inflation falls strong, paying a 29% interest how Bonte 2030 is too expensive,” he said. And he warned about the fragility of the model to possible external shocks: “What happens if there is a drought and lose US $ 15,000 OU $ 20,000 million? The agriculture is cyclical. If reservations are not accumulated, all that goes at prices.”
In addition, he stressed that the Executive must change his approach from the last quarter of the year. “With a negative current account and without access to credit, this scheme is not financed. There is no room to sustain it without changes,” he said.
Dollar pesos
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Country risk, maturities and lack of recapitalization of the BCRA
The economist also pointed out that in 2026 payments for US $ 29,000 million between capital and interest. “Where are those dollars to come out? How are Bopreal to cancel in the future? That requires a correction,” he said. In turn, he questioned that the government has not recapitized the BCRA. “They bought non -transferable letters of the treasure to capitalize, but then they issued almost the same amount, which ended up being a decapitalization. Uploads to the Treasury spot because they had no weights,” he explained.
Finally, Menescaldi referred to the country risk, which is still elevated. “There is no need for great devaluation, but consolidating the external front. Without more reserves, the country risk will not lower,” he concluded. In that sense, he recalled that the IMF asked to duplicate reservations and reach US $ 50,000 million by 2030. “I don’t see how this model could achieve it,” he closed.
Source: Ambito
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