Dollar: the demand for coverage grows and estimate that the BCRA will maintain the intervention in futures

Some factors seasonal like him Aguinaldo collection and the Winter holidaysadded to Final of the thick harvest settlement and disputes policies around October electionsThey anticipate greater pressure on the official dollar before an increase in Demand for coverage. Until now the government used a strategy to contain expectations: invest in the futures market (Sales were registered for US $ 1,537 million in May). The question is: Will the Luis Caputo team continue to use the same strategy for the second semester?

It should be noted that this week The Central Bank (BCRA) confirmed that It closed May with a position sold in futures of US $ 1,946 million. The data is compared to the position sold of US $ 409 million end of April and means that Last month the central sold US $ 1,537 million at termhighlights this Thursday the Consultant 1816. “May is the largest -sold position of the Milei era, Although it remains far from the amounts sold by the monetary authority at other times of the recent past, “they explained in their latest report.

But to the May intervention for contain expectations It adds an extra pressure facing the events that will happen this semester. “Today it is observed A demand growth for coverage prior to elections. The most resonant case is the climbing of the future dollar for December, which today is quoted at $ 1,355 when only a month ago was $ 1,235. Contracts mark a short rate of 36% in that market, so there is a perception that this stability will not be permanent in 2025and shows clear coverage on an eventual rise from the dollar near band ceiling, “he told him to Scope The economist Federico Gluistein.

To political pressures should be added other seasonal factors such as the rise for demand for tourism and savings derived from the bonus and others like The increase in credits in dollars, and the PLOCATIONS OF ONS and Bonds in Dollars. “In turn, in July we have the replacement of withholdings, so there will be Lower settlement of the agro -export sector, less currency offer and greater pressure on the exchange rate“Gluistein added, who believes if these forecasts are fulfilled, The Government could continue using the future market as a controller, to anchor expectations.

In this regard, he said that this strategy too “It will depend on how market confidence is.” “After the recent tender, there will be Many pesos turning And they could bow up. Also The eventual ‘waiver’ would generate more pressure on currencies hence A rising rate would be an answer to avoid transfer“He said. It should be noted that this week arrived in Buenos Aires, the head of the IMF mission, the Nepalese bikas Joshi, Who has to analyze the progress of the program agreed in April of this year and that the future disbursements will depend on this.

For its part, Walter Morales, President & strategist of Wise Capitalhe also believes that there will be a greater demand for coverage: “As with the proximity of each choiceeither presidential or legislative, The market will demand coverage. On the other hand, it should be noted that On Monday they would conclude much of the liquidations of the thick harvest, with the impact that this could have on the reserves. And, added to this, The market took note that the BCRA had to sell future dollar in important quantities to contain the value of the American currency“

The government intervenes the dollar without losing reservations: how it does it

In talk with scope, Andrés Reschiniof F2 Financial solutionshighlighted what it is The operation carried out by the BCRA In the futures market: “The entity sells contracts and that lowers the implicit rate, which makes the ‘carry’ more attractive with coverage and consequently the sale of currencies for placement in pesos by pressing the spot also downward. On the other hand The monetary authority is with a balance sold that if the underlying rises (to 3500) it generates differences against him (loss) that are expansive (if they are in favor of other). As everything indicates that the position is December the final result is still open. “

For this expert, while the BCRA maintains the open position, the expansion-control that is generated every day can be modified. “The issue is that if it goes to repurchase all that the demand would generate an important rise. Unless you have a very favorable scenario, I think you will let them overcome“It expanded.

Since 1816 they added information in this regard: The position sold of US $ 1,946 million last month is explained by sales of the future December, which at the end of May had a total open interest of US $ 1,130 million. If the last business day of last week is taken into account, The open interest added in dollar futures (US $ 464 million) was very similar to the end of May (US $ 480 million)so from the consultant follow that “So far in June if there was additional intervention of the BCRA, it was not very relevant.”

Prospects for the dollar for the coming months

“For the third quarter we project an average depreciation of 2% monthlystill above inflation. In October, in the previous electoral, the rhythm could be accelerated to 4.3% monthly, with a point leap of 10.5% in November, Before retaking a more aligned path with disinflation. Thus, the year would close with an accumulated depreciation of 33% year -on -year, below 43% of the average inflation for that period, implying a real appreciation of the exchange rate in the annual balance, “he said Miracles Gismondieconomist and analyst of Cohen Financial Allies.

According to this expert, The third quarter is presented as the most challenging of the year, being the period prior to the elections. For her, the main risks are, on the one hand, A deepening of the international crisis that enhances the cost of capital or even reverses flows to emerging countries. On the other, that The exchange voltage would advance to the elections and the agents begin to anticipate a depreciation of the exchange rate, which would put pressure on inflation in the previous electoral.