At the moment, 2025 is not being a great year for Argentine actions, as reflected in the performance of the MERVAL S&P INDEXwhich accumulates a drop from 20% in dollars since January and it fell 44% from the annual maximum to the relative minimum of April. However, there are some drivers! that could promote a recovery again or even a new bullish trend.
The response of Argentine actions to the elections
One of the most important is the Electoral environmentwhat should be favorable for ruling. In October, it will be announced if Javier Milei You can count on much of the Chambers of Deputies and Senators In order to continue with its economic plan, focused on the decline in inflation.
“The most relevant is the national mid -term elections and in the province of Buenos Aires. Investors hope to see both a clear triumph of freedom advances as a weak performance of opposition coalitions,” he said Ezequiel Fernándezdirector of Corporate Research in Capital Balanz.
“A good election of the government could expedite the reforms, giving fluidity to the passage of official projects in Congress towards a more competitive economy, more friendship with investment in the private sector,” he added Bruno PerinelliChief of Trading in Global Investor.
In this line, Juan José VázquezResearch Chief in Cohen financial alliesprojected that a good choice could positively impact the price of sovereign bonds And, consequently, lower country riskwhich currently is around 700 points.
“The electoral results should generate a strong compression of the country risk at levels below the 500 basic points, in case the ruling is imposed online as the surveys are coming out,” he said.
Tour of Wall Street
In this way, a second bullish driver would be unlocked: The return to international markets by the State.
“The market took some steps in that regard. That could even provide funds for cancellation of debt maturities in dollars and clear a degree of uncertainty that may be affecting the demand for Argentine assets,” said Perinelli.
Consequently, since the yields of the bonds would fall, there would be a Flow migration to actions In search of greater benefit.
The role of world instability
Finally, market executives consider local businesses to grow again in the short term if the International uncertaintyclosely linked to the trade war promoted by Donald Trump and the war conflict in the Middle East, It dissipates.
“We need the fears to be cleared a little more about the global deceleration and that the queue wind for emerging take a little more.
Fortunately, at this time, according to Vázquez, there will be “balance sheet great weight that these companies have in the Merval Index.
Source: Ambito
I am a 24-year-old writer and journalist who has been working in the news industry for the past two years. I write primarily about market news, so if you’re looking for insights into what’s going on in the stock market or economic indicators, you’ve come to the right place. I also dabble in writing articles on lifestyle trends and pop culture news.
