Daniel Artana on the dollar: “At some point it will go where to go”

Amid the exchange tension and with the magnifying glass of the International Monetary Fund on the fulfillment of the reserves goals, the economist Daniel Artana He launched a critical analysis of the economic policy of the government of Javier Milei. Warned that the ruling party faces a “double challenge”: Hold the economic plan to satisfy the IMF and, at the same time, preserve electoral chances for October.

“The exchange rate is free inside the band, but at some point the band has to disappear and the dollar is going where to go, which will determine the market. The problem is whether it depreciates a lot, ”said Artana, suggesting that a Abrupt exchange correction It could be on the horizon if sufficient reserves are not accumulated in the Central Bank.

Criticism of the management of IMF goals

Artana was clear when pointing out that The Government failed to comply with the goal of accumulation of net reserves planned for June In the agreement with the IMF. Although the Executive achieved an extension to achieve the objectives, the current figures generate concern among analysts and in the multilateral organism itself.

“The Government has chosen not to have the Central Bank buying dollars, but to do it via debt placement. And, in general, He has not achieved the goal that was scheduled for Junebeyond that he has now approached, ”said the economist, who also integrates faithful and advises business groups.

As he explained, the agreement with the fund allowed to accumulate net reserves above US $ 1500 million, but that was tied to a process of Reconetization of the economy and a greater action of the BCRA in the change market. “That would have taken you to a exchange rate more depreciated We have had, ”he said.

The band regime: A strategy with expiration date?

The scheme of exchange bands implemented by the government works as one of the pillars of the anti -inflationary plan, but Artana considers that this model has a clear limit. As the end of the electoral calendar approaches, pressures on the exchange rate could be intensified.

“The band’s roof still remains credible,” said the economist. But he warned that, sooner or later, The market will demand a more transparent definition of the price of the dollarwithout covert interventions or artificial limits.

The reference is direct to the Crawling PE of 2% monthly, which is kept unchanged since December, and to the use of informal bands that slow sudden movements of the official exchange rate.

IMF, Politics and Reservations: The three variables that concern

Artana stressed that the IMF is observing three key factors at the Argentine situation:

• The political capacity of the government to sustain its program.

• The behavior of Kirchnerism in Congress.

• The level of accumulation of reservesthat is still weak.

“The problem is not moderate Peronism, but The populist aspect of how economic policy is interpreted”, He slipped into a dialogue with Radio Rivadavia, in a message that also points to the legislative impact and the need for Milei to consolidate his political power in Congress to move forward with the structural reforms.

Is a post -octive devaluation coming?

Although he did not say it explicitly, the analysis of Arta suggests that, if there is no recomposition of significant reserves, the post -election scenario could lead to a exchange rate correctionalready without the restrictions imposed today by the official exchange policy.

In line with the warnings of other economists such as Rodolfo Santángelo – who suggested that the official dollar should be at $ 1,400 to recover competitiveness – Artana considers that the current scheme is unsustainable in time If there is no improvement in the balance of payments.

“The band has to disappear, and the dollar go where you have to go,” he said. The great unknown is whether the Government will be ahead of that movement or if it will expect the market to impose its conditions after October.