The Ministry of Economy faces strong maturities for the end of June

He Ministry of Economy This Wednesday has an important challenge in terms of Debt renewal in pesos with maturities for a total of almost $ 10 billion According to private estimates.

This Monday the Finance Secretariat will announce the bond menu which will make available to the market that as usual contemplates short -term options for common funds and a second placement of Bonte 2030 for US $ 500 million

As reconed in the first call last week, with maturities for 3.8 billion The Secretary of Finance, Pablo Quirno achieved a 168% renewal above what I had to cover. Rates range between 30% and 35%.

For the closing of the month the maturities They are concentrated in a LECAP for $ 6 billion, a bonte for $ 2.3 billion and a bancer for $ 1.7 billion.

The operation is carried out afterl msci kept Argentina in the “standalone” qualification, which implies that it is still considered as outside the markets.

At the local level the stability of the exchange rate and the downward trend of inflation determines a certain preference of investors by the titles in pesos At a fixed rate that continues to exceed the projections on price increase.

The market is committed to greater disinflation until October

The analyst Gustavo Ber He points out that despite the fact that the offer of dollars from the field could decrease around next month, “the exchange calm – Even in the midst of slight regular rearrangements in electoral stages – It could be extended since the appetite is still supported by the emissions of Bontes and Corporateas well as the Carry¨in of the auspicious scenario of disinflation in progress ”.

The society of GMA capital bag He points out that “the market is getting used to a rarity in Argentina: that The weight prize is higher than the price progress. ”

“He last month the deposits managed to overcome the two positive rate digits After adjusting for inflation. According to the City’s projections, the indexed debt would be the winner for investments in the next 12 months, ”says Gma Capital.

However, he argues that “The market bet on the fixed rate” and details that the indifference calculations between short and long term curves “They record an inflation of 1.5% monthly until October, below the 1.8% average of the REM ”.

“Looking at the end of 2025, The expected annual returns of Dollar Linked and CER bond equal 42% and 37% in pesos, respectively. On the contrary, the Lecaps, with already known return, contribute 34% per year to the portfolio ”, andXPlica the report. GMA Capital states that “The distance is reduced when the expiration is in 2026although the debt adjusted by inflation and tamar remains at the top ”.

“It exceeds the 32% offered by Boncaps one year.Ndudably, the market, although it maintains that real rates will be positive, has a reading about the different price dynamics than economists participating in the REM, ”adds the study.

That way it is ensured that “Investors expect the deflation process to be more marked, which would affect nominal rates (tamar bonds) and the nominal exchange rate (Linked Dollar Bonds). ”