He Central Bank He confirmed today what many suspected that last May the operating table of the monetary entity had intervened strong in the dollar futures market. According to official information, the BCRA closed last month with a position sold for almost US $ 1,950 million, a product of US $ 1,947.08 million short positions YU $ S1 million in long positions.
This is the third consecutive month in which the BCRA intervenes in the future dollar in order to appease certain exchange and financial expectations and turbulence. But without a doubt last month it was, until now, the highest level of intervention since in March it closed with a position sold of almost US $ 376 million that later raised in April Au $ S409 million. That is, more than quadrupled the position sold from one month to the other in May.
It should be remembered that on the wheel of May 7 the value of the dollar “spot” or cash collapsed 6% in a day characterized by high operated volumes and an expansion of “open interest” (quantity of historically high contracts) historically high in dollar futures. That was particularly striking especially in the December 2025 contract with implicit rates well below 20% annual nominal, which made the entire market think that it was an official intervention. But reality exceeded all expectations, since the market consensus estimated that the BCRA had intervened at $ 1,300 million au $ 1,500 million.
What happened on the wheel of day 7? The reviews of the day realized that the exchange market lived a wheel of strong falls where the official exchange rate (A3500) retreated 4.2%, falling from $ 1,203.8 to $ 1,153.5, its lowest value since April 23 ($ 1,122.5); At the same time, the Spot dollar closed to $ 1,124, lowering 6.6% compared to the previous closure of $ 1,204. According to market reading, this official exchange rate suggested a genuine vendor flow, possibly driven by banks given the abrupt movement of the exchange rate.
However, The downward pressure also extended to the financial dollars and thus the one counted with liquidation (CCL) decreased 3.7% in the day, going from $ 1,212 to $ 1,167, and the MEP dollar fell 3.6% of $ 1,199.6 to $ 1,156.1. In this way, in tune with the currencies, the dollar futures collapsed: all contracts experienced strong casualties (between 5.7% and 9.7%) but, the longest – which usually concentrate less operated volume – were those that fell strong. The May contract dropped 5.7%, June 6.1%and July 6.6%. On the other hand, the middle section fell between 7.1% and 8.7%, while the long part of the curve sank between 9.1% and 9.7%.
What many operators stood out was the increase in the volume operated since it amounted to AU $ S4.261 million from the US $ 761 million of the previous day, US $ 485 million in the previous one and an average of US $ 1,294 million in April. It was the highest operated amount in all Milei management.
In turn, the “open interest” shot $ S869 million in a single day. The curious thing about this increase, said PPI analysts at that time, was that it did not occur in the shortest contracts, which usually monopolize the largest volume operated, but in those that are not operated frequently.
In particular, the “open interest” rise was concentrated on the December contract that registered an unusual leap of US $ 486 million. Therefore, the consensus warned that it could not be ruled out that the government has intervened in the futures market in order to accompany the movement of the spot dollar.
What pursued the BCRA with these interventions?: Attenuate any type of future devaluation expectation, validating the idea that the official dollar approaches the band of the band and adjusting the implicit rates to reestablish the attraction of the “Carry Trade”.
It is worth noting that last March interventions were given in the middle of the closing of the agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF), of the exchange rate turbulence and the announcement of the new flotation system between exchange bands. So those made in April were the first since the beginning of the new program with the IMF, which indicated that the BCRA did not expect to intervene in futures. Although it is not explicitly prohibited in the agreement, the market interpreted some commitment from the government that it was not going to abuse this valid tool, hence the surprise of the analysts.
It should be remembered that the operations in dollar futures do not imply delivery of the species of the contract, in this case dollars, but that it is an arbitration of interest rates, what happens with these contracts is compensation at the expiration, that is, if the BCRA sold dollars for example to $ 1,200 and the dollar closes at the expiration above that price, it will deliver the difference in pesos. That is, these operations have non -exchange monetary impact, that is, that the BCRA does not deliver reservations.
Source: Ambito
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