Undoubtedly, one of the data that resonated in the week was the confirmation that The Central Bank (BCRA) sold future dollar contracts for the equivalent au $ 1,947 million (between Rofex and Mae) in order to contain devaluation expectations That, facing the next semester, they intensify more and more. Faced with this panorama, the reports that circulated in the City agreed on Shit the government’s strategy to contain exchange pressure. And the consensus is clear: the focus should be put in holding positive real rates.
In recent days, increases in the future exchange rate were observed, consisting of the increase in interest rates in pesos, which, in turn, is a function of the expected inflation rate and the expectation of evolution of the exchange rate, they assured from Quantum. They also stressed that These movements in the exchange rate are recorded at times Where the reversal in the demand for post-seasonal June-June money, will be combined with the lowest seasonal currency supply at the beginning of the second semester.
And they explain it: “The highest interest rate in pesos seems to be responding to the need for more capitals to enter in the second semesterboth to meet the objective of reserves and to sustain calm in the change market and not affect the level of activity. “
On the other hand, from Grupo SBS, they agree that the dynamics of the fees is one of the two fronts that monitors the market. “At the local level, the gaze also goes through several fronts, both from the macro-financial and from the political. Regarding the former, the market continues to look closely at two issues: The dynamics of Ars interest rates and external accounts, in the end of the thick harvest “they expressed.
For this report, The real rate is at “markedly positive” levelssomething that happened as a result of Liquidity conditions restrictive pesoss in a context in which, measured against GDP, monetary aggregates do not increase.
“This shows that There is still room to remummer in pesosthat the restrictive liquidity conditions lead to the current environment of high rates (endogenous) and that, so and all, the stocks pesos They could also press on the types of changes given their increase in context of appreciation of the real exchange rate (TCR) “they detailed.
And they expanded: “NO EVIDENCE FOR HOMO INFLACTION OR EXCHANGE IS EVIDENCE Product of, we believe, these restrictive monetary conditions mentioned, to which seasonal payments of bonuses and taxes were added. In addition, facing the next few weeks, you have to remember that The seasonal demand of pesos usually increases. We highlight as a point to monitor forward in monetary matters The increase in the default of credits to the private sector, something we see associated with the increase in real rates and that it could also be affected by a slowdown in the rebound of the activity that took place from minimum of 2024 “.
For the SBS group, The focus on rates dynamics will continue for a timeespecially if it is considered that in a few days the bank liquidity management scheme will change, for the announced elimination of the Lefis. “Now, banks must evaluate where to place their liquidity surpluses, with the final composition between the options determining the rate level,” they described.
What happened to the rates after the last tender of the treasure
The rates of Lecaps They went up in the shortest part and already quote until February with Some titles operating above 2.7% Tem. “These values are above what was awarded in the tender according to the section of the curve observed. However, the distribution of rates continues to be heterogeneous since titles to similar maturities are still operating about 2.6% Tem. In the CER curve, the rise of nominal rates did not have a strong impact and operated very close to Wednesday’s values, “he resumed Outlier.
In turn, Miracles GismondiEconomist and analyst Cohen financial allieshe also revealed that he could happen with the rates in the short term: “With the elimination of the Lefi, the repurchase of Puts And greater coordination with the Treasury Financial Program, the BCRA transits to a regime in which the market defines equilibrium rates. In the short term, this rearrangement could generate some upward pressure on the rates in the face of liquidity absorption episodes, such as the placement of Boppreal or the disarmament of transient liabilities. However, in the medium term, the effect would tend to be neutral, within a framework where the fiscal anchor and the objective of exchange and inflationary stability remain the pillars of the program.
Source: Ambito

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