Oil in a rise and low: it sank more than 6% and after playing a maximum in 5 months

The prices of oil More than 6% collapsed and lost almost $ 5 per barrel this Monday and after global stock markets preferred to ignore the effects of US attacks on nuclear sites in Iran and China warned the Republic of Islamic for the approval of the blockade of the Ormuz narrow.

The futures of crude Brent $ 4.90, or 6.3%, $ 72.19 per barrel, while the crude West Texas Intermediate (WTI) American dropped $ 4.60, or 6.2%, to $ 69.23, Reuters reported.

In the last hours, the US president Donald Trump He requested to keep the prices of low oil so as not to “make the game to the enemy” and asked China to press the Islamic country so as not to generate instability in the international market.

As indicated on Sunday the local media Press TV, the decision to close the Strait -for which it flows more from the 20% of the world demand for oil and gas– It is not yet definitive. In this context, the Commander of the Revolutionary Guard Esmail Kosari indicated that the approval “is on the agenda” and “will be done when necessary.” “Parliament has concluded that the Ormuz Strait must close, but the final decision falls to the Supreme National Security Council,” he said.

Ormuz, the key that Iran has in their hands to show in the war

The measure arrives in front of the “silence of the international community” and as response to attack perpetuated by the United States On three nuclear plants in Iran this Saturday night, Fordo, Natanz and ISFAHAN. The missile crusade caused a “total destruction” and some injured.

The Ormuz Strait, located in the Persian Gulf mouthit is one of the most critical points in world trade and, according to various estimates, they pass between 17 and 18 million barrels per day. The Strait is also the scene of the transit of a significant amount of liquefied natural gas (LNG), especially from Qatarone of the main exporters in the world.

Also, this step is the Unique maritime route that connects the Persian Gulf with the open ocean And it is home to important oil producers such as Iran, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates. Experts have long warn that any interruption or closing of the Strait can cause immediate and important increases in world oil prices and disturb world energy security.

Strategic importance of the Ormuz Strait for Petroleum

The Ormuz Strait is a sea step narrow but crucial, which connects the Persian Gulf with the Indian Ocean. It has only about 39 km wide at its narrower point, but it passes there more than 20% of the oil consumed in the world.

Pexport rincipales are Saudi Arabia, Iran, United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Qatar and Iraq. Although the United States and Europe have diversified suppliers, Asia depends strongly on the oil of the Persian Gulf (China, India, Japan, South Korea). This generates panic in international markets.

If the strait is blocked, That volume of oil would be temporarily off the market. Therefore, there would be less offer, which directly affects the rise in prices.

Even Without an effective blockade, With just the threat or an isolated attack in the area, international crude prices (Brent, WTI) They usually shoot.

How an eventual blockade of the Ormuz Strait on oil prices impacts

According to the first analysis, taking into account crisis scenarios for the eventual climbing of war between Iran and Israel, added to the intervention of the United States, there are several scenarios:

• Initial rises of around 20%: it is the most realistic scenario, on which analysts mark the most emphasis.
• Before a total blockade (for weeks or months), some analysts estimate that the price of the barrel could exceed 150 or 200 dollars.

Global impact against eventual blockade of the Ormuz Strait

When oil rises, fuel prices, transport, energy and foods worldwide uploadgenerating inflation and chain economic effects.

Speaking to the same media last week, a group of strategic experts said that American direct military intervention It will be expensive for the United States and for the administration of President Trumpespecially if the Ormuz Strait is closed. This would be because most of the world’s multinational corporations would close in a matter of days because The energy supplies necessary to continue with its operation would be exhausted. According to some forecasts, it is likely that Oil prices rise 80% during the first week if the Ormuz Strait is closedsince alternative routes would imply much higher costs.

Iran’s retaliation

Just three hours later that President Trump announced the attack on nuclear facilities in Iran arrived the first responses from the country of the Middle East. Minutes later, a new launch of Iranian ballistic missiles destroyed several buildings in Israel and left at least 27 injuredaccording to the first information.

The strongest impacts occurred on the port city of Haifain the north and center of Israel, in suburbs of Tel Aviv. The first barrage included 22 missiles and the second five, according to evaluations of the Israeli Defense Forces (FDI), which announced new attacks against enemy military objectives in western Iran. The images show shattered buildings, destroyed cars and emergency services that attend families that had to be evacuated.