The dollar in July: how can the return of full with soy and corn retentions affect it

Instead, the parallel He goes to finish the month with a rise in $ 35 for the first time since March and closed to $ 1,215 For sale.

Reimposition of soy and corn tariffs: how will impact on the dollar

The temporal leave to the export rights For all crops end this Monday, June 30 and the Executive decided not to extend the validity for two key crops: the soy and the corn. However, the government did extend withholdings until March 31, 2026 for the wheat and the barleytwo crops whose planting is in full development and that are harvested towards the end of the year.

While wheat and barley will pay only 9.5%, lTo soybeans will pay a 26% retention to one of 33% as of July 1. Corn and sorghum, among other products, from 9.5% to 12% and sunflower will go from 5.5% to 7%.

In this way, there will be a lower supply of currencies from agriculture in the market, although specialists expect the agrodollars to stay at least until the middle of the month.

“After the rise of retentions, a reduction of foreign exchange will be generated, to which the pre-electoral period will also be added in the coming months. These two factors generate in themselves a pressure on the exchange rates that are usually translated into an increase in the value of the exchange rate, probably above the center of the band“The economist explained Federico Glustein In dialogue with Scope.

In that line, the specialist added that “with the fall of the value of the dollar in international terms as a result of the tariff policy of Donald TrumpArgentina could resume competitiveness and not expect an escalation of contributions, but a smaller rise. “

For its part, the economist Gustavo Ber He pointed out that “the largest liquidations could extend until mid -July”, which would maintain an offer level that does not generate market tensions. “There could be stability until then,” he said, at the same time that he predicted that after that period a “gradual rearrangement” could be given for a greater demand for coverage.

Gustavo Quintana, of PR CHANGE OPERATORSit coincided with the possibility that the liquidations are maintained until July 15, so and everything does not observe the possibility of a substantial increase due to the lack of offer. “It gives me the feeling that there will not be a very important modification at the price level, it is likely that its rank will remain more or less in the current value,” he said.

IMF Reservations and Mission

The Minister of Economy, Luis Caputoconfirmed that the National Treasury bought last week U $ 200 million With the money of the fiscal surplus to swell the International Reserves of the Central Bank (BCRA)as the official had advanced at the beginning of the month.

This happened simultaneously with the development of an IMF mission in the country to carry out the first review of the new agreement. While the government keeps its fiscal discipline, one of the demands of the agency is far from meeting the reserve goal.

These types of operations are carried out “by blocks” that is, for a certain sum of money that, for example, can offer a bank or a company or province that sells dollars in the market.

The International gross reserves of the monetary authority closed on Friday in U $ S41,453 million After increasing US $ 1,212 million in the week, with the impact of the last bond that contributed U $ S500 million.

However, some analysts argue that the important fiscal deficit that President Javier Milei conquers the support of the markets and obtains the applause of fund leaders.

Dollar for July: how much can come next month

For the economist Federico Glustein he Official dollar could be around $ 1,230 for July, such as “Pricea” the futures market. “The scheme of the bands and the nominality of the economy induces that the exchange rate begins to climb positions within the distribution of the band, moving ceiling and floor, but I think we will be in line with the market estimation,” he said. Meanwhile, the Blue It will be in line with the officer’s rise.