The official dollar rose again This Tuesday, June 24, although he cut off his advance, while the financial operations operate. Gross reserves of Central Bank (BCRA) They exceeded US $ 41,000 million for the first time since the beginning of 2023. This is the case a day after the international gross reserves of the international BCRA they will impact the U $ S500 million of the Bonte and that the monetary authority itself confirmed that in May it intervened strong in the contracts of the future dollar.
Local markets were affected by a marked global risk of conflict in the Middle East. However, investors react positively to the possible truce between Iran and Israel and bounces the Buenos Aires bag and sovereign bonds.
In that context, the official wholesale exchange rate It rose only $ 3.50 to $ 1,174.50 For sale, after having jumped $ 28.50 in two days and about $ 10 during the first hours of this wheel. Even so, the price continues below the close of May after a Good export settlement.
Future dollar contracts accompanied the officer’s dynamics and rose again in all their deadlines. The “Pricea” market that the wholesale exchange rate will end Julio in the $ 1.218, and that will end 2025 in the $ 1,355, which would give an increase of 15.4% here to December.
Also, the Retail contribution increased to $ 1,192.91 for the sale in the average of the financial institutions published by the Central Bank (BCRA). Meanwhile, in the National Bank The ticket climbed $ 1,145 for purchase and $ 1,195 for sale.
In the bag, the dollar CCL climbed $ 4.4 (+0.4%) a $ 1,187.51, while the MEP $ 3.52 (-0.3%) fell to $ 1,181.63. He Blue went on the closure $ 5 to the $ 1,215.
He Central Bank (BCRA) He closed a new wheel without interventions in the official market, but gross reserves grew again, in this wheel US $ 331 million to the U $ 41,218 milliona new maximum in two and a half years.
The BCRA confirmed that it intervened in the futures market during May
The BCRA reported yesterday that it closed May with a net position sold in futures by U $ S1,946millones against a position of US $ 409 million sold during Aprilthat is, this implies that the monetary authority sold US $ 1,537 million in futures contracts during May.
The program with the IMF does not impose restrictions on operations with futures; He only points out that “The authorities do not expect to intervene in the futures market, except in cases of market disorder”. The Argentine Administration would have specifically requested margin to intervene in the futures market if necessary, although there was no “disorder” or run in the futures. The intervention was mostly concentrated on the contract with expiration in December, which momentarily dragged both the rates and the spot exchange rate.
Dollar: What prospects are in the short term
“From the Economic Front, still recognizing the strong fiscal, monetary progress and in the disinflation process, now the looks are directed towards the accumulation of reservations,” said Gustavo Ber. This is because Investors evaluate that a higher level could allow a faster reduction in country risk, still about 300 bp. above the regional average.
“This would be crucial to recover access to the market and thus refinance future capital maturities”the expert highlighted.
According to market sources, greater liquidation From the fieldalready in the final stretch of the reduced aliquots, next to the greatest appetite by ¨Carry Trade ¨ before the positive signals from the disinflation They push the wholesale dollar around $ 1,150, after having been “consistent” a time between $ 1,180/$ 1,190.
“To the extent that reservations are continued through the new strategies in progress – together with the most restrictive monetary initiatives – the calm climate should extend, even when the next electoral scale that will be nothing less than PBA will earn rhythm,” the expert closed.
Source: Ambito
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