Salvador Di Stéfano’s analysis highlights a favorable moment for investments in pesoswith good prospects and profits. Despite the negative reclassification of Argentina, there is optimism for trade agreements between the US and China, and a possible decline in federal reserve fees, which could benefit emerging markets.
The euro can be seen against the dollar, offering better savings protection. In Argentina, the rates in pesos exceed inflation, investments in letters and bonds being attractive. In addition, a ceiling is anticipated for the dollar and actions in shares, especially with the pre -election context.
Investments in pesos leave a great utility, and have good prospects. Bonds are paid in dollars, it is time for shares.
Doors have been opened in the markets that allow us to excite ourselves with new increases, despite the reverse in the reclassification of the country, which remains at the bottom of the Morgan Stanley table.
On July 9, the United States announced commercial tariffs, on Thursday night I arrived at a tariff agreement between the United States and China, news confirmed by governments, but without communicating details. This is a two -way play, since on July 29 and 30, the United States Federal Reserve meets, if the chapter closes tariffs and inflation yields again in July, we would be at the doors of a short -term rates decline in the United States, which without being very ambitious could descend from level 4.25%/4.50%to level 4.0%/4.25% future casualties.
In this context of leaving behind the commercial war, and a probable scenario of rate rise, we see how the dollar at the international level is devalued, and the euro is already requested by quoting around 1.18 per dollar. This currency will defend the saving better than the dollar for the coming months, it already has a gain of 20% in dollars from the minimum of January of the year 2025.
This news should positively impact the emerging world, and Argentina is always aligned with the volatility of these markets, despite not belonging to this exclusive club.
In recent days, the province of Córdoba placed a 3 -year bonus at a 9.75% annual rate, it is a good sign for the placement of a subnational state, sought $ 1 billion and placed US $ 725 million, a telephone number for Maximiliano Pullaro the governor of Santa Fe that is to place a bonus of similar characteristics. Argentina had made the placement of an operation repo at a rate of 8.5% per year to a short term.
The illiquidity of June was felt in the market, the Tamar rate for fixed deadlines above $ 1 billion is located at 34% per year, the tender of the treasure failed to refinance the total maturity, and proceeded to inject pesos into the market, this should be felt in the first week of July, the month in which we believe that the rate should begin a road.
The inflation indicators would be indicating that we will have a June with an inflation similar to May, therefore, we continue to project an annual inflation of 16.2% to 12 months seen. The devaluation rate would be around 12.5% per year.
Place money in a fixed period to 34% per year, ends up reporting a positive interest rate of 15.3% per year. If we measure the dollar rate, if our forecast is met we could have a 19.1% annual dollar rate.
With rates in dollars and pesos adjusted by such positive inflation, deposits in pesos in banks grow moderately, however, the purchase of dollars seems the path chosen by many investors. Given the recent history and future perspectives, those who choose to buy dollars are wrong, and will lose purchasing power with their savings.
Conclusion
. – Reversion of international expectations for an agreement for the tariff and probable tariffs in July in the United States. The euro is still marked the path of investments.
. – Córdoba placed international debt, it is not a low rate, but returning to world markets is no small thing. New emissions, income of dollars to the market are coming, and the dollar has a roof at $ 1,200.
. – The rates in pesos are positive against inflation and against the dollar. It is the time of weight, you have to place long in pesos, for that to buy letters, boncap and boncap dual the longest you can.
. – On July 9, the coupon of the sovereign bonds in dollars is paid, if there is reinvestment low the country risk, good time for the holders of these titles.
. – The court opens for the shares, which are very beaten in the year, time to recover, if the surveys accompany the pre -election rise. Remember September 7 election in the province of Buenos Aires and October 26 National Legislative Elections.
Source: Ambito
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