Investments: What were the winners and losers of the first semester and in what to bet for the second

The end of June brought with it the completion of the first semester of the yearone full of doubts by the exit of the exchange rate, the evolution of the inflationeconomic growth and political comings and laps. But, curiously, The context did not promote dollarized assets, but those in pesos.

The bonds in pesos, the great winners of the first semester

Specifically, the Fixed Rate Lecaps and the bonds linked to inflation They were the ones who offered a better performance for investors from January to June.

According Isabel Bottaproduct manager in Balanz Capital, the Lecaps shorter, with maturities in June and July, offered Returns of up to 16%while the longest sections also moved up, with rises above 10%.

“The strong appreciation of these titles responded both to the mechanics of the capital withdrawal to expiration and a growing demand for instruments in short -term pesos,” he said.

Meanwhile, Agustina Savoiafinancial advisor at Gold Coconutsexplained that Short Lecaps They still stand out as instruments of preference, surrendering Between 2.85% and 3.16% monthlywhich implies annual nominal rates of approximately 35% to 40%.

“They generate positive real rates, consolidating themselves as a solid alternative and being clearly the most demanded for Carry Trade strategies,” he said.

For their part, bonds adjusted by Cer They accompanied with a very good performance. He TZX25for example, accumulated a rise above 20%driven by inflation that, although it comes in low, remains high in interannual terms.

In this line, Eric Ritondalechief economist in Bridgehe added that the Performance measured in dollars of these financial assets in pesos was higher than that of sovereign bonds and actions during the first semester.

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Argentine actions were not lucky

Unfortunately, the actions did not enjoy the same destination. In fact, after 2024 with considerable increases, The Merval retreated about 20%dragged by a combination of profits, political indefinitions and greater aversion to global risk.

“The industrial sector was the most punished, with falls that exceeded 35%, while the real estate segment showed greater resistance, with a more moderate setback, close to 7%,” said Botta.

In this framework, Savoia indicated that The Argentine Equity is in a “consolidation stage”with dollars in dollars that remain at attractive levels in historical terms, although “without relevant flows from abroad that drive new increases.”

Bonds

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A second continuous semester

Looking ahead, market specialists expect that dynamic remains very similar to the experience in the first part of 2025, even with the legislative elections in the middle.

“Inflation is moderating and the official dollar is still stable, in the $ 1,195/$ 1.210 zone. This keeps the strategies in pesos alive. Lecaps and rate funds continue to surrender above inflation And they are a good alternative for profiles Conservatives or to handle liquidityalthough the rates fell with respect to the early year peaks, ”Savoia revealed.

Nevertheless, There will also be room for debt in hard currency. “For the second semester, we believe that sovereign bonds In dollars they again offer a more attractive risk-return compared to local currency bonds in general, after the best performance that the latter showed in the first semester. However, among the latter, they continue to like the Dual bondsand the Bonte 2030 For those investors willing to take a higher risk of duration, ”said Ritondale.

In parallel, Botta He said that, for more conservative profiles seeking dollarization, the recommendation is about the To 30which lies 3% below the GD30 and has the additional attraction of the July coupon. And in the long section, the GD41 It could benefit in a clearer electoral context or if the government manages to show concrete advances in the fiscal or monetary